Here we list our reports which you can buy them online. We also market reports produced by Hong Kong-based Aspire Aviation, which can be found here.
Many aerospace analysts, and some consultants, contend the 100-149 seat market is the “Bermuda Triangle” for airplane manufacturers. We disagree. True, it has been the wrong market for some OEMs and for some airplanes. When OEMs have tried to fill this market demand with shrinks, usually it doesn’t work, or work efficiently . When weak and dying OEMs try to fill this market segment with solutions, it doesn’t work. It is an unforgiving market segment.
As the next generation of midsized widebodies enter the market, airlines are faced with a plethora of choice. The new airplanes have compelling economics – low fuel burn, engines that promise remarkable on wing time and superb green credentials. Having seen the market’s very favorable reaction to the A320neo, might Airbus consider an A330neo?
Comparing 757 Replacements
The Boeing 757 occupies a unique market niche at the top end of the narrow-body 757 Replacement 11July Summary market. With a two-class capacity of 189 seats, and a 3,900 mile nautical mile range, this aircraft was once a staple of the transcontinental US market and, following the addition of winglets, has carved out a niche on flights from the US East Coast to non-hub European destinations. The 757 has largely been replaced on US trans-con routes by the Boeing 737-800, a somewhat smaller aircraft that is less costly to operate and much less expensive to purchase when both aircraft were in production.
The Coming Aerospace Squeeze
The commercial aerospace programs under
development in Brazil, Canada, China, Japan and Russia (BCCJR) will soon challenge the dominance of Boeing and Airbus for commercial aircraft between 100 and 210 seats. Because this sector is forecast to include 16,977 new aircraft valued at over $850 billion over the next 20 years, a shift in production from the US and EU to new competitors will have a significant impact on the United States, France, Germany, Spain and the UK.
Any business opportunity of such magnitude is always attractive in terms of employment, jobs, and is a target for politicians. Consequently, government support of aerospace is commonplace, as demonstrated by the WTO cases against Airbus and Boeing. As politicians in Brazil, Canada, Japan, Russia and China examined the market for commercial aircraft, they have all sought to extend their national participation through financial support. And while the WTO may strip Airbus and Boeing of certain funding mechanisms, they will find other ways to take their place.
Air Service to Small and Medium-Sized American Airports:
Preparing for the Inevitable
Large-scale changes in airline economic fortunes continue to have a down-stream impact on local air service options. This is especially true among communities which rely upon regional airlines for their most critical air service links. For many small and medium-sized American communities, the attending fall-out can often times be traumatic, and in the very worst cases, lethal.
Between 2006 and 2010, 10 U.S. airports lost important scheduled air service links when their last small-jet flights were determined to be uneconomical by major carriers and 50-seat RJ flights were discontinued at Atlantic City (NJ), Waterloo (IA), Naples (FL), Beaumont/Port Arthur (TX), Hancock (MI), Eau Claire (WI), Hickory (NC), Macon (GA), Sioux City (IA) and Tupelo (MS).
AIRBUS SAS – A Market Analysis and Outlook
This report is a comprehensive review of Airbus SAS, the primary component of EADS and a leading manufacturer of commercial airlines and defense technologies. Our assessment of Airbus centers on its competitive position in the global aerospace industry, particularly in commercial aircraft, where it competes in a duopoly with The Boeing Co. for the “mainline” jet market, and how it is competitively and strategically positioned for both the near- and long-term.
Rather than provide a traditional report, we have chosen to answer several key bottom-line questions that address the critical issues impacting the future of Airbus and EADS.
- How is Airbus positioned vis-à-vis Boeing?
- What are Airbus financial prospects?
- How Sound is its parity position with Boeing?
- Will Airbus succeed with the A350XWB?
- What will be the outcome of the WTO complaints?
- Production: To Cut or Not to Cut?
- What are the Key Risk Factors for Airbus?
Executive Summary – airbus summary
The Business Case for the Bombardier CSeries
The business case for the Bombardier CSeries is sound. Although Bombardier is pursuing a narrow market segment, 100-149-seats, this is hardly an inconsequential market. There is an estimated market of more than 6,000 aircraft over 20 years, accounting for traffic growth and retirements/replacements. Airbus and Boeing are trending toward up-gauging their airplanes, which means largely abandoning this market segment to new competitors such as Bombardier and Embraer and potentially AVIC, Mitsubishi and Sukhoi.
Skeptics have questioned the CSeries business case for a variety of reasons and assertions:
- The 100-149-seat market is a dying market;
- Bombardier has no experience in this segment;
- The CSeries has few orders;
- The CSeries has had false starts;
- The CSeries 2×3 seating is a mistake;
- The CSeries doesn’t have the range of the A319 and 737-700;
- Bombardier has no experience in working with advanced materials;
- Airbus and Boeing can under-price the CSeries with their A319 and 737-700; and
- The A320 family New Engine Option will destroy the business case for the CSeries.
Some of these items are indeed cause for skepticism. Others are pure hyperbole aimed at undermining the CSeries at the behest of competitors and uninformed or biased observers.
Free Executive Summary CSeries Summary
The Boeing Company – A Market Analysis
The Boeing Co. is one of the world’s largest aerospace firms, with more than $60bn in annual revenues. It is comprised of three basic business lines: Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), Boeing Capital Corp. (BCC) and Integrated Defense Systems (IDS). BCA and IDS each account for roughly 50% of the revenues, with IDS typically slightly more. BCC is the “house lessor/financier” for BCA, providing customer financing as a funder of last resort.
BCA and IDS each have a number of business units to specialize in segments of their respective industries. For example, BCA business units include those that provide maintenance, repair and overhaul services; pilot training; and maps and navigation services. IDS has some 300 military programs, from the high-profile and easily recognizable C-17 to the lesser-known and more recent emphasis on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Systems (UAVs and UASs) and cybersecurity.
The focus of this Report is on Boeing Commercial Airplanes. We will, however, also include discussion of the 737-based Wedgetail and P-8A Poseidon programs and the KC-Tanker based on the 767 and potentially the 777, all derivatives of commercial programs.
The Coming Narrow-Body Re-Engining Programs for the A320 and 737NG Families
- China’s COMAC selects the CFM International LEAP-X to power the C919, a new competitor to the A320 and 737NG
- Russia’s Irkut selects the PW P1000G Geared Turbo Fan for the 150-200 seat MS-21
- Airbus and Boeing launch re-engine programs for their A320 and 737 families
- A320RE and 737RE will push out replacement airplanes until late in the 2020 decade
- Airlines are increasing pressure on Airbus and Boeing to make RE decisions sooner than YE2010
The implications of these headlines:
Airbus and Boeing are virtually certain to launch re-engining (RE) programs for the A320 and 737 families because customers are increasing pressure to provide dramatic Specific Fuel Consumption (SFC) improvements in the near term, preferably within the next five or six years. Airbus and Boeing now state that current generation single-aisle airplanes will be produced well into the 2020 decade. Cost overruns on the A380, A400M, 787 and 747-8 programs, with significant customer penalties, means neither Airbus nor Boeing can afford new airplane programs now.
The Dynamic Regional Jet Market
The definition of a regional jet would typically include the fact that it is a twin turbofan engined airliner with a maximum of 100 seats. Interestingly the generally accepted first regional jet is thought to be the Yak-40, which was introduced in the Soviet Union, flying for Aeroflot in 1968. It is rather interesting that the Soviets were significantly ahead of the west in developing this category of aircraft. But there were other important aircraft of slightly larger size such as the Sud Aviation Caravelle and the Fokker F-28. This segment has been something of a tough area for aerospace companies. Teal Group’s Richard Aboulafia has termed this segment as a graveyard for airliners.
The purpose of the regional jet was to replace turboprops serving small communities and connecting these communities to larger hubs, as well as offer city to city service, bypassing hubs. When fuel costs were low these aircraft were attractive. With airline deregulation in the United States, airlines were frantic to find any capacity to drive traffic through hubs and connect communities. These small jets offered capacity that could be deployed quickly.
The Renaissance of the Turboprop Airliner Market
The commercial turboprop airliner market has seen significant fluctuations over the past decade. Initially there was great interest as regional airlines started to grow; the need for airlines to feed network airline hubs meant lots of opportunities. What had been essentially a 19-seat market rapidly grew into a 30-seat aircraft market and then into today’s ~70 seaters.
- We expect the turboprop passenger airplane to experience a renaissance.
- Within the United States airline consolidation is in full swing. Fewer airlines mean fewer choices and higher fares. This movement is likely to be mimicked elsewhere.
- As eloquently put forward by our colleague Doug Abbey in his report “Air Service to Small and Medium-Sized American Airports: Preparing for the Inevitable”:
- Between 2006 and 2010, 10 U.S. airports lost important scheduled air service links when their last small-jet flights were determined to be uneconomical by major carriers.
- Nearly 200 U.S. airports have lost all scheduled air service since airline schedules reached their peak in the mid-1980’s.
- We anticipate that at least 30 other U.S. airports face a similar risk. A majority of the local communities are simply too small or located too near alternative gateways to sustain small jet flying in the long-term. With relatively few 30 to 50-seat turboprop aircraft flying today which could theoretically be used to replace them – and larger capacity (70-plus seat) regional jets too financially risky to deploy in small markets – more local communities remain at-risk at losing their air service than ever.