Avolon: passenger traffic back at 2019 levels by June

Global passenger air traffic will reach 2019 levels already by June this year, driven by the strong recovery of Asia Pacific and, in particular, China. “Despite the implementation of testing requirements, reopening of the world’s second-largest aviation market will drive a rapid uptick in air travel”, lessor Avolon says in its 2023 outlook that was published on January 16. Avolon: passenger traffic back at 2019 levels by June.

With this forecast, Avolon is slightly more optimistic than airline association IATA, which said in December that the industry will recover to 2019 levels by 2024, citing travel restrictions, fuel prices, depreciation of the US dollar, and the effects of a mild recession as factors that impact the recovery pace.

But Avolon, the third biggest lessor by aircraft size, is expecting a strong recovery in Asia Pacific this year that will see traffic recover to pre-pandemic levels this summer. “While the US and Europe benefited from accelerated re-openings in 2021-22, economies in Asia Pacific look the strongest heading into 2023. Australia led the way in Asia Pacific last year showing how travel restrictions could be reduced and borders re-opened while managing through Omicron-induced exit waves, followed by Singapore and the rest of Southeast Asia. For every two seats of airline capacity added in the world today, one is in Asia. China’s reopening will unlock significant demand, driving rapid recovery in the region,” Avolon says.