Daily Insight: Thursday 7 March 2019: Is the 777X the 747 replacement? |

News Boeing is rolling out the 777-9 next week in Seattle. This 425 seat super-twin is a stretched and re-engined version of the 777-300ER, and will feature a new carbon-fibre composite wing with folding wingtips. The aircraft, according to Boeing, will provide the lowest seat-mile costs of any current aircraft.When the 747-400 was introduced, it occupied a similar position - about 425 seats and the lowest seat-mile costs in the industry, and became wildly successful. Will the 777-9 take over that title over the next decade or two? Analysis The 777-9 has many attractive traits - new engine, and innovative carbon fiber wing, folding wingtips, and improved aerodynamics efficiency. At entry into service, it likely will have the lowest seat-mile costs of any commercial aircraft. It seems to have all the boxes checked for success.But this aircraft will also have tough competition, both existing and forthcoming. The smaller Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 models are nearly as fuel efficient, while lower in capacity and acquisition costs. For many airlines, the 777-9 may simply be too big for many routes. Add to that the likelihood that Airbus will introduce a larger version of the A350 to compete, available by 2023, that will likely leapfrog the 777-9 with lower seat-mile costs due to its lighter weight, and a new competitive battle looms on the horizon. Insight While the 777-X family has started to sell again after a long order hiatus with British Airways orders to replace its 747 fleet, the jury is out that this aircraft will be a market success. Boeing’s 787, after a difficult start, has proven that lightweight carbon fiber construction can be successful. Airbus followed with even slightly higher advanced materials content in its A350, and both aircraft have been successful in the marketplace.With a planning horizon of 20 years, and uncertainty over geopolitics, economics, and fuel prices, will airlines want to trust their future to re-engined models or all-new model when a competitive choice is available? Boeing won’t stretch the 787 to compete, but Airbus is likely to launch an A350-2000 at Paris this year to disrupt that market. That means that Boeing will need to sharpen it’s pencil for forthcoming orders as the duopoly competes every order.As an airline, if you had the choice of a new model or an older model, which would you choose? The 787 proved that airlines will move aggressively to new technology, and despite the initial problems, that aircraft has become successful. Is there enough new technology on the 777-9 to make it the long-term choice airlines are looking for, or will they consider a larger A350 variant with updated technology. Boeing is hoping for the former, and Airbus the latter. This will be an interesting battle to watch.

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