Boeing Allegiant 737 MAX 1536x865 1
How is the absence of Spirit Airlines going to impact the ULCC segment? As we noted in the previous post, the Network carriers are best placed to exploit the growing bleisure market. The market is continuing to adjust, Spirit’s absence has driven up fares and ancillary fees.
Take a look at this history (based on DOT T-1) to see how things have changed already. ULCCs were all the rage but started to lose momentum going into the pandemic. Even in the midst of the pandemic, their load factors were a lot better than peers. By 2022, as revenge travel took off, ULCCs lost to network carriers who never looked back.
Through May 2026, industry load factors are over 81%. While network carriers moved to the top, ULCCs and LCCs have seen softening load factors. Does the data guide us to where this is heading? The image at the top of this post is a hint.
Unlock proprietary KPI models, production forecasts, delivery forecasts, and the rest of this analysis for just $1 today. Subscribe for complete analysis + ongoing updates
Want this applied to your fleet or portfolio?
We can run a focused 15–20 minute walkthrough on the implications for your specific programs or risk exposure — or put together a custom subscription proposal.
