Has United Actually Become #1? The Data Says Yes |

United Airlines has been making waves for some time. This shift can be attributed to Scott Kirby's arrival and his relentless efforts to take the airline to the #1 spot. Based on our metrics, we think he can fairly claim, "job done." Our metrics come from flight operations data filed with the US DOT. In this post, we'll go through various sources to show how United has outperformed its peers among the big three, or even the big four. This opinion is data-driven - and as we've stated repeatedly, data has an opinion, but no emotion. The Data US airlines file operational data with the US DOT at a granular level. Mining this data over the years has given us deep insight into how the industry performs. Combining the various sources and linking them for modeling lets us develop charts and tables that uncover insights that are hard to discern from the big picture. Once you go down the data rabbit hole, there's no turning back. So let us take that trip. Operations Efficiency is Job #1 Travel consumers think airlines sell travel. Industry insiders know airlines sell time. An airline's entire business operates around schedule. That schedule is the cornerstone of the business because revenues are essentially fixed - once you paid for your ticket, the airline cannot get any more money from you unless they up sell a seat or market ancillaries. The ticket price is the big one, and the airline typically gets that cash well before delivering the seat. But an airline's costs are not fixed. Fuel costs vary daily, and an airline with zero hedging operates at risk. Typically ~30% of an airline's costs are fuel-related. Customer-facing, uniformed staff are unionized and expensive because of their skills. Annoy these people and watch your brand wither. Adding that group takes the costs to ~70%. Airlines therefore have to be efficient at a level most companies don't have to match. For example, weather impacts everyone. For an airline, weather has an outsized impact as it easily throws schedules off. Consequently, we watch airline operations closely because they're arguably the best place to see how well an operation is performing. That brings us to this chart. Built from the US DOT On-Time dataset, we track operational performance down to the tail number. We developed several KPIs and share two that demonstrate operational efficiency. The data goes through June 2026. Total flights give you a sense of scale. Average Mechanical Delay (minutes) shows the state of the fleet delivering the schedule. Mechanical Disruption Rate provides another view of the fleet's condition. [caption id="attachment_197375" align="aligncenter" width="589"] US DOT; AirInsight[/caption] The big four are easy to identify from flights. The other two columns tell the story we are focusing on. Here's a graphical view of the same data from the table. [caption id="attachment_197376" align="aligncenter" width="640"] US DOT; AirInsight[/caption] The winners are clearly in the bottom-left corner. Alaska occupies the most favorable quadrant position in the lower-left corner (lowest mechanical delay minutes and lowest disruption rate), indicating superior mechanical reliability on a per-flight basis. However, United achieves nearly identical reliability (around a 9.5% mechanical disruption rate and ~3.5 average delay minutes) at a significantly larger scale and with greater operational complexity, making its performance exceptionally strong for a legacy carrier of its size. The Efficiency Argument for Alaska: Alaska is in the optimal lower-left quadrant because its per-flight mechanical disruption rates and delay minutes are exceptionally low. Smaller airlines inherently face less compounding network friction, allowing them to post stellar percentage-based punctuality numbers (often leading DOT scorecards with 84%+ on-time arrivals). The Complexity Penalty: Operating a massive global hub-and-spoke system—managing bank waves at mega-hubs like Chicago O'Hare and Denver, tight international connections, and widebody fleets—creates exponential propagation risks. When a major carrier maintains low mechanical delay averages (~3.5 minutes) and strong on-time rates (hovering near 78%) while handling massive global scale and high ASMs, its structural resilience is arguably more impressive than a smaller, domestic-heavy carrier's numbers. The evidence supports our argument that United has hit #1. The Other Shoe - $ We have made a data-driven case that United is the most efficient among the big four. Here's another data insight from the US DOT, based on Form 41 data. This dataset is subject to lots of questions about how airlines account for certain items - creative accounting has a comfortable home here. We've been using these datasets for several years and are familiar with 'creative accounting.' A primary example is Delta filing its maintenance costs as an average. This outrageously delivers data showing its 717 fleet and A350 at the same cost per hour. We showed this to the DOT, and they were not aware of it. Not for years - go figure. That problem is apparently being worked on now. The DOT advised us that it can only force an airline to go back and fix filings for three years. Back to the data, and this table should be familiar. Based on Form 41, Table 5.2, we calculate total operational costs per flight hour and then convert that to minutes. That way it becomes easier to consider what delay minutes cost. [caption id="attachment_197124" align="aligncenter" width="523"] US DOT; AirInsight[/caption] Compare United to its peers: Over the period, 12.6% lower than American, 10.6% lower than Delta. This difference is not just double-digit. It becomes a massive advantage when multiplied by the number of flights. That extra cash flow lets United invest aggressively in a newer, more fuel-efficient fleet. Which, in turn, widens the gap in its favor. Fleet Investment Our source for this data is our own Production and Delivery Tracker. Based on this, we note that United is Airbus' #5 customer this year, taking 3.1% of its deliveries through September 9. United is Boeing's #1 customer, taking 15.9% of 2026 deliveries through September 9. United's Airbus deliveries are A321s, providing the airline with the most in-demand model at the top end of the single-aisle segment. This provides United with optimal seat-mile costs and over 100 ASM/gallon. United's Boeing deliveries are primarily MAX 9s and 787s. The former are a compromise because United really wants the MAX 10. Even so, the MAX 9 delivers a competitive ASM/Gallon compared to the much harder-to-acquire A321neo. The following table tells that story. [caption id="attachment_197378" align="aligncenter" width="544"] US DOT; AirInsight[/caption] Notice United's fleet growth is in the green. Only Alaska and Southwest come close. Bottom Line Our data sources and KPIs clearly show that United is the #1-performing US airline. Alaska may be doing even better, but it's not at the same scale. Scott Kirby has achieved his goal.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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