How the 737 MAX Is Performing for US Airlines |

As Boeing continues its recovery, MAXs are being delivered at rates not seen for a long time. Current delivery rates are ~70% of pre-grounding levels. So, it’s recovering and climbing back to the previous rates. When the North Line starts going, this rate will accelerate further. It’s an open question whether the global supply chain can support Airbus and Boeing's delivery-rate growth. Meanwhile, how is the MAX doing in US service? Here’s a deep dive into the most recent data. Big Picture Here's the average load factor and number of passengers per flight. US airlines are currently operating at an average load factor of over 80%. The most interesting data point is nearly hidden by the year in the top right corner. Allegiant is the sole MAX 8-200 operator in the US. Its small fleet is doing exceptionally well. It leads this chart by a substantial margin. US DOT; AirInsight Southwest is the world’s largest MAX operator, .and it is in the lower left quadrant, which is the least optimal spot on this chart. The following chart looks at 737 NG and MAX average stages. With over 25 years of history to evaluate, we get a great view of how these aircraft are being deployed. There are several points to note. US DOT; AirInsight The NG stage peaked in 2014. The MAX took over and kept it growing. However, the system average stage is ~1,000 miles. Notice how much longer the stages are for the NG and the MAX replacement models. The MAX clearly offers operators a lot more, and they are exploiting it. Competitive Perspective The following chart provides a competitive perspective of the Airbus and Boeing models. The current generation shows considerable improvement in stage length. The standouts are the A321neo (+14.7%) and the MAX 9 (+10.6%). These two models are at the upper end of the single-aisle segment. Both qualify as middle-of-market (MOM) aircraft. Trends in previous analyses on this site point to growth in this segment. The large MAX 10 order book further shows that the market is moving toward MOM. US DOT; AirInsight While MOM may seem like a clear winner, another data point raises a question. The next chart shows payload utilization for single aisles in US service, going back to 1995. US DOT; AirInsight They are close: MOM at 60% and non-MOM at 61.2%. Newer models offer better range and fuel burn but apparently are not being exploited any better. The question is, why not? Fuel Burn Fuel is the key driver for airlines to operate the latest models. Engine makers promised ~16% better fuel burn and, frankly, over delivered. Here’s a table showing just how significant the improvement has been. US DOT; AirInsight That’s the upside, and the downside is low delivery rates of new aircraft. Airbus and Boeing point to the engine makers as the primary cause. Digging deeper into the fuel burn by current-generation aircraft types and airlines, we see the following. There’s a lot of detail here to work through. US DOT; AirInsight We can simplify this table as follows. The good news is the table shows the US industry-wide fleet fuel burn efficiency gain achieved by transitioning to current-generation aircraft over the 2021–2026 period. Important point: the Allegiant 2026 data is suspected. That 2026 negative feels wrong and we’ll be contacting DOT about it. US DOT; AirInsight Now, by taking this data and splitting it by OEM, we get this. US DOT; AirInsight The improvement between the two OEMs is closer than one would expect, given the rapid A321 fleet growth. The larger aircraft inevitably generates more ASMs. However, the MAX is a lighter aircraft and therefore has a relatively lower fuel burn. Bottom Line US airlines that deployed MAX see excellent performance results in terms of stage length and fuel burn. Southwest may have started Hawaii and Central America flights with NGs, but is seeing significantly better numbers with the MAX. As the MAX fleet grows, operators are seeing steadily improving fuel burn, and that benefit flows straight to the bottom line.

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