Premium 2018.7 – How Long can OEM’s Milk Old Narrow-body Designs?

Last week, the A320 celebrated the 30th anniversary of its first flight.  But it is the youngster of the mainline narrow-body fleet when compared with the venerable Boeing 737, which first flew more than 50 years ago and entered service in 1967.  Technology has changed markedly since each aircraft was introduced, and while the OEMs have introduced several generations of changes to existing models to incorporate new technologies, is the time for an all-new narrow-body mainline aircraft coming soon?

At the lower end of the market, we already have an advanced new technology aircraft in operation with the Bombardier

C Series, and a recent model in the Embraer EJet, which are the basis for the significantly updated E2.  Both of these programs have more advanced technology and are more efficient than their counterparts from Boeing and Airbus, with better operating economics and more modern features.  But each top out at between 130 and 135 seats in normal configurations, and don’t compete at the heart of the narrow-body market, which continues to move upward in seating to about 160.

The answer is that we won’t likely see a new 160-seat narrow body design for another decade or so, as the A320 is transitioning to its first major upgrade, to the re-engined neo family of aircraft and the 737 is currently transitioning to the re-engined MAX family.   The neo and MAX, introduced in 2011 and 2012 respectively,  will likely require a solid 10-12 year production run to recoup their development cost.  This means it is unlikely that a narrow-body replacement would be economically feasible before 2025, and quite likely not until 2030.