US Airlines are adjusting; capacity discipline is improving

Another week has passed, and here’s how US airline traffic performed. As always, we use charts to help explain what the data tells us.

Looking at the chart at the top of this post, “Shock and uneven recovery (2019–2022)”: Business travel collapsed far more severely than leisure in 2020. Leisure recovered earlier; business then posted very high percentage growth from a low base, creating the sharp divergence peak in 2021.
New normal (2023–2026): The business-to-leisure mix has settled at a permanently lower level. Growth rates have largely realigned, but the absolute ratio remains depressed. Domestic flying is larger in total volume than in 2019, yet structurally more leisure-weighted.