Airline labor productivity peaked during the pandemic. The industry has spent five years trying to regain it. Here’s the data from DOT’s P-1a. Meanwhile, the DOT just reported the industry added another 8,212 jobs in September.
US DOT AirInsight
The 2020 spike is easy to explain. Headcount came out through early-outs, retirements, and furloughs faster than capacity did. What flying remained was mostly domestic leisure. Productivity looked great while operations shrank.
Then it inverted. The line dropped below 2019 levels during 2022 and kept falling through 2023. It now sits about 15% under the pre-COVID baseline, per our math. 2024 through 2026 have flat-lined at the floor.
Five years of erosion with no real inflection looks structural. The 3Q26 uptick is one quarter. It proves nothing. Yet.
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