Transactions through September

Herewith our monthly update on transactions. Airbus (+14%) is seeing consistent higher transaction levels this year compared to last. Boeing (-13%), ATR (-27%), Embraer (-42%) and Bombardier (-49%) not so much. Looking at the single-aisle market, the A319 second-hand market looks robust. As does the A320 market. The A320neo is about 88% more active in 2018. The A321 market is off a tad, but the A321neo starting to hop, more than making up for that easing. For Boeing, we note the 737-700 market is relatively less active than its Airbus equivalent. The 737-800 has seen nearly 29% fewer transactions in 2018. But the MAX8 is up 318% reflecting the focus on the newer model. The 737-900 market remains relatively quiet compared to the other NG models. The MAX9 is starting to be delivered, but note how far behind it is to the A321neo, which is now ahead by a factor of 6:1. Looking at the twin-aisle segment we can see a distinct market focus. At Airbus, the A330ceos saw transactions, especially among the -200s. The -300 market is much quieter as this aircraft remains is high demand. If you have one, you keep it. The A350 is coming on strong, with a slight improvement in transactions over last year. market reaction to the A350-1000 has been positive. Qatar opting for an even higher gross weight model recently. The A380 hangs on, barely. For Boeing its mainly a story about the 787 - especially the -9. As the 777-300ER winds down, the market awaits the 777X. We recently analyzed the 787-9 against the A330-900 and found that Boeing is able to charge a significant premium for their aircraft. The 787-9 looks to be the benchmark in its category. Next, we look at the regional OEMs. Both are having a significantly slower year. Embraer has set the pace with its E175., which is getting a lot more attention than its CRJ900 competitor. But Embraer's larger models are seeing a much slower 2018 compared to 2017 - probably for the same reason as the A330-300. Once you have one, you keep it. Besides seeing a slower market in 2018, note that lessors declined from 221 aircraft last year to 195 this year. The following chart shows the same data in another way. 2018 has nearly 12% fewer transactions through September. The chart clearly shows the impact of fewer transactions by lessors.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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