The earth’s magnetic poles have been shifting. The north magnetic pole has shifted from Canada towards Siberia in recent years, as shown in this very short video from EASA. The speed of the change is quite noticeable from 2000-2019, and if the trend continues, could be an early indication of a potential pole reversal, which has happened periodically in the earth’s history. These movements will continue to have an impact on aviation.
Since runways are numbered in compass directions oriented to magnetic poles, the shift from Canada to Russia will change runway alignments as the pole moves. So Runway 4 may need to become runway 5 or even runway 6 in the next couple of decades. With the speed of the change in position increasing in recent years, this small, but significant, impact on aviation will likely manifest itself further over the next decade.
This is already happening, and will likely be accelerating in future years. Tampa, Boeing Field, and Anchorage have already changed runway numbers, and given the increasing speed of the movement of the magnetic north, more renumbering will be needed over the next decade. That entails a fair amount of work in repainting and re-marking runways, as well as adjusting instrument approach charts. Our world is not magnetically static, and aviation needs to evolve with the environment in which it operates.
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