Insight: Monday 1 February 2021: How Deep will the Second Wave Be?

Our US airline performance index (updated in our morning call each day) combines passenger activity, flights, and load factor data to provide a comparative performance statistic using 2019 levels as a baseline.  We’re seeing a mild downturn again in late January of 2021.  The question for us is whether the new strains and potential additional lockdowns will further depress the industry, or if vaccinations will result in a more rapid turnaround in performance in 2021.

With 45.9 million vaccine doses distributed and 25.9 administered, the US is well on the way to immunizing a majority of citizens at most risk within the next 90 days.  Combined with the spring weather, the impact of the pandemic and influenza season should wane, and we would expect a return to more normal conditions by late April or early May.