Last month, Mexico lost its US air safety rating, falling from Category 1 to 2 under the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) scope. The Mexican Government has been working around the clock ever since to recover, but it could take a while before it bounces back. So, how long before Mexico recovers its Category 1 status? A look into Mexico’s downfall The FAA audited Mexico under the International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program in October 2020. Unfortunately, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the process took longer than it should. On May 25, the FAA published its results, downgrading Mexico to Category 2. This means Mexico can’t adhere to international aviation safety standards and recommended practices established by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The downgrade couldn’t come at the worse moment. The Mexico-US market was bouncing back from the COVID-19 pandemic; some carriers like Viva Aerobus were already deploying more capacity on transborder routes than in 2019. But the FAA’s decision halted the recovery. Mexican airlines can no longer add routes or frequencies to the US. Meanwhile, the US carriers can’t codeshare with their Mexican partners, which profoundly impacts Delta and Aeromexico. As reported by local media outlets, the FAA found 28 deficiencies in its audit. Ever since the Mexican Civil Aviation Federal Agency (AFAC) has worked towards demonstrating that it meets the ICAO standards. How quickly can Mexico regain Category 1 status? This is the second time Mexico has lost its Category 1 with the FAA. It previously happened in 2010. That time, it took four months before Mexico could regain status; following the bounce back, the transborder market between both countries had the best decade in history. Now, the Mexican carriers hope for a quick resolution as well. Every single player in the Mexican aviation industry has published statements offering their expertise to the government. Likewise, the government has opened up, working collaboratively with the industry, sources have said. The FAA has also offered its help, and Mexico has accepted it. No one, not even the US, is benefitting from Mexico’s downgrade, many sources have said. So, how long before Mexico recovers its Category 1 status? AFAC’s director (a military man) said it could take between seven to twelve months to recover Category 1. Other experts within the industry seem to agree with him. The Mexican government is also keenly interested in recovering Category 1 status because the future success of one of the President’s pet projects depends on it. The Mexican army is currently building a new commercial/military airport for Mexico City. It is set to open up on March 21, 2022. But if the date arrives and Mexico is still on Category 2, the airport most likely will be constrained to domestic flights only. As a result, none of the Mexican airlines could launch a route to the US from this new hub. What are the challenges? While the industry is optimistic about recovering Category 1 status, a few challenges remain. The first one is Mexico’s current austerity plan. The FAA found that Mexican aviation authorities didn’t have the resources, both human and technical, to oversee the aeronautical activities in the country. Therefore, AFAC needs more money, more people, and more training. None of these three requirements appear overnight; instead, they need another thing Mexico doesn’t have - time. In the meantime, Mexico’s airlines are on the edge of their seats for another reason. The FAA still has to establish the baseline under which it will restrict the commercial operation between both countries. It is the FAA’s right to do so. And there are three dates on the table, and one of them is a potential disaster for Mexican airlines. The dates are 2019, October 2020, and May 2021. If the FAA sets the baseline on the first or third date, there won’t be much trouble. Mexican carriers can work with the capacity and routes they had on those dates and maintain good operational levels. But if the FAA sets the baseline on October 2020, Mexican carriers will be impaired. They will have to operate at pandemic levels while the rest of the world recovers. Second, they could see Delta, American, and other US airlines take an even more significant market share on Mexican destinations. And worst of all, they wouldn’t be able to do anything. According to different sources, the FAA is closing on its decision, but it hasn’t come yet.
