Embraer disclosed an updated design of its new turboprop last week. The Brazilian airframer will share more details later this year, but AirInsight had the opportunity to catch up with Rodrigo Silva e Souza, Vice President Marketing of Embraer Commercial Aviation. He is responsible for strategic planning, product strategy, and market forecast. In conversation with Embraer's Rodrigo Silva e Souza. AirInsight - On August 13, Embraer presented a different version of the turboprop: an aircraft with aft-mounted engines compared to the one with wing-mounted engines late last year. Is this now the final version of the turboprop? Rodrigo Silva e Souza: “No, it is the current configuration. The program launch is only expected to be in the second half of next year. It is the latest iteration based on the interactions we have had with customers recently, especially with a much stronger than anticipated interest from the US market. But we still have to do some trade-offs and evolve the design before we can really say that we have frozen the configuration.” What has been the main reason to change from a wing-mounted engine configuration to a rear-mounted configuration? “There are two reasons. The first is the requirement to provide a real jet-like experience. The rear-mounted engines result in a much-quieter cabin that will give passengers a similar experience compared to a jet. The cabin is the same as on the E2. But because of the propellers, we are still working on that. There were alternatives like the introduction of more insulation or a noise-canceling system, but we thought that was not the best, not the most efficient, and not the simplest solution. So that’s why we decided to opt for aft-mounted engines, which also improve the operational compatibility. And the second reason is that it is also our intention to think about this platform for the introduction of new propulsion systems in the future. Eventually, it is going to be a hydrogen-powered aircraft. Then it is a good thing to have the hydrogen tank closer to the engines. There will be changes to the aircraft as to where we place the tanks. I don’t know how this will affect the inside, but on the external configuration I don’t see a big change necessary on the fuselage.” So you are really already thinking about what will come into the next decade? “Yes. Everything we do will not be introduced from day 1, because those technologies are not ready yet and will take several years to mature. But with everything we do, we check the compatibility with the introduction of new technologies. When we think about systems and aircraft operations, we think ‘when we go this way, is there a roadblock, is there something that we can adapt here?” But this could make it quite expensive to develop the turboprop when you start now with let’s say conventional engines and then switch to the new generation that might be hydrogen-based? You would have to do two designs within a very short time frame. “The time frame will not be so short, because we think that hydrogen will only become widely available in let’s say 2040 and beyond. And even then it will start in small aircraft. For this turboprop, we are probably talking closer to 2050 when a hydrogen version would become technically and economically viable. But it will be much easier to introduce this when we have thought about this from the beginning.” Senior Vice President Engineering and Development, Luis Carlos Affonso, said on August 13 that Embraer plans to test a hydrogen demonstrator around 2025. Are you aligned with the roadmap of Airbus, which also says it wants to have a hydrogen demonstrator available in 2024 or 2025 and entry into service of a hydrogen airliner around 2035? Or will it really be only in 2050, as you said? “A technology demonstrator is several years away from our next product that will go into service. We want to develop the technology and we believe that for smaller aircraft, hydrogen will be introduced earlier than 2050, but not for a 90-seater turboprop we are looking at now. We want to develop the technology now so for the next decade it will be possible to introduce new aircraft powered by hydrogen. But only the size of a small aircraft.” Is hybrid-electric an option for your turboprop? “No, we don’t see electric as an option for this size. In a study, we have considered full-electric and hybrid-electric aircraft and hydrogen with fuel cells and direct injection as well as sustainable aviation fuels. We don’t see that electric or hybrid is viable for a 90-seat turboprop anytime actually. We envision a transition directly to hydrogen, that’s one of the reasons for changing the configuration. Have you decided what engines it will get in its first version? “No. We are still talking to different engine OEMs about what they can offer and can introduce in terms of new technology to improve the maintenance costs, the fuel efficiency. I would say this is perhaps the key element that we are going to work on from now on until the launch of the program.” Is the CFM RISE program and the engine that will come out of this demonstrator program something that you could use on the turboprop in the distant future? “I don’t think so. It seems that the (open rotor) technology that is involved here is more suitable for when you are replacing a jet engine. Perhaps for a bigger plane, we will consider that technology. But the turboprop is really an aircraft that flies slower. We can be more fuel-efficient if we use other types of technologies, not specifically the open rotor.” Speaking about launching the turboprop: it is said to happen at the 2022 Farnborough Airshow… “I think it would be tight to launch at Farnborough. It will be in the second half of next year. We are working on partnerships to make the program viable and we need to advance the discussions with the engine manufacturers and with other relevant system suppliers. And also we would like to launch with some orders. The idea is that sometime next year we will start offering this airplane. When we launch, we will with a significant number of orders.” Let’s discuss the cabin size. We always understood that you were looking at 70-100 seats, but now you have announced it will be 70-90. What has changed here? “It depends on the configuration. In a very high-density configuration, you could do over 90 seats, but the true optimization points are 70 and 90. Even 70 seats have some variations as well depending on the configuration. We will have two versions: one 70-seater and one 90-seater. We studied versions beyond that above 100 seats, but the feedback was that you are probably going into a market where you are competing with larger narrow-bodies. Turboprop operators don’t want to do that, they want to stay in their market where jets can’t go. So I don’t anticipate a larger version at this time.” Luis Affonso said it would be a nice replacement for a 50-seater, with a jet appeal. Can it replace existing jets, like older Embraer E1s or Bombardier/Mitsubishi CRJs? “I think so, but only for the very short sectors. The main opportunity is to replace the 50-seater jets, which don’t have a direct replacement now. So the 70-seater turboprop, in a typical single-class layout with 29 inches of pitch, when you bring that type of airplane to a configuration with three classes with some seats in First, Premium Economy, and Economy Class, that brings you to a nice 50-seat configuration. But it is also possible that it will replace the somewhat larger jets like the Bombardier on the very short sectors. The turboprop brings tremendous advantages when compared to those larger jets for short sectors.” But then United Airlines recently announced an order for 200 Boeing MAX and 70 Airbus A321neo’s that will replace smaller regional jets and improve its gauge. Isn’t this a trend you see elsewhere in the market too? “I think we have to wait a little bit more to understand completely the strategy that United is pursuing. Actually, I see the opposite. After the pandemic, there will be much more fragmentation in the market and I see smaller aircraft becoming more relevant than it was before the pandemic. There is a general reduction in passenger count and as more people will continue to work from home, there will be more fragmentation in the market. I think we are going to see a revival of smaller aircraft, but this will need a big breakthrough economically. That is what we want to bring with the turboprop. For instance, it is a much more economical aircraft when you compare it to a 50-seater (jet). I don’t think United would have made the same decision if a 50-seater turboprop would have been available to them.” So your turboprop goes for the 70-90 seater market, even up to 100. It will have 20-40 percent better fuel efficiency. Where does that leave your E175-E2, which has the same number of seats? It will find a direct rival from within Embraer. “The idea is to have complementary products. Just like we segment by seat capacity, we are also segmenting by sector length as well. The E2 is more optimized for longer sectors, like 400-500 nautical miles. The turboprop is designed for 200-250 or 300 nautical miles. We actually even don’t compete with our E175-E2, because the jet doesn’t work in such a short sector. The idea is to place into that market a complementary product. We may see airlines having a turboprop for the shorter sectors and an E2 for the longer sectors. It actually brings more synergies than cannibalization.” A few more questions about the design: the belly-fairing on the turboprop animated picture is quite bulgy, What’s in there, a center fuel tank? “No, actually we have some space for baggage there, but nothing specific. On the conventional configuration, we have the fuel tanks in the wings. And when we introduce hydrogen, it would be behind the main cabin.” And is it correct that you also studied a high-wing configuration? “We studied all the configurations and a high-wing was one of them, but I remember that there were a lot of weight penalties. One new certification requirement is related to crash-worthiness, in which the cabin has to withstand the impact of the wing in case of a very hard landing. That would make that entire structure very, very heavy. In our trade-off, we thought this configuration wasn’t the best.” You say the main interest for the turboprop is coming from the US, but in your most recent Market Outlook from last December China-Asia Pacific is also a key market for turboprops. They account for 490 of the 1,080 aircraft in your forecast. “Yes, the two main regions for the turboprop are Asia and the US. Asia, because it is likely it will recover faster which will then require larger turboprops than the current generation aircraft that they have. When Luis Affonso announced more details on the aircraft, we received a lot of emails from the region asking ‘When are you going to offer these, can I secure a position?’ So Asia will be a key market and the other is the US because of the 50-seater replacement.” Your 10-year 2020 market outlook for 1,080 turboprops is eight months old. In 2019, your 20-year outlook said 2,320. Is the 2020 outlook still up to date? “When we look at our turboprop, the market starts in 2027. We would be talking about a bigger market now of over 2,200 turboprops. If the jet replacement market really becomes a reality, especially in the US, we are talking about another 500 units on top of that. So we would be talking closer to 3,000 units. If it would be a 20-years forecast starting from now, it would be more like 2,000 airplanes. But when we consider the entry into service of the turboprop in 2027, we talk about a bigger market because we don’t have the effects of the initial years of the recovery from the pandemic.”
