Business Jet Impact, the Great Recession or the Pandemic? |

Which was worse for business jets, the Great Recession or the Pandemic? Looking at business jet operations, it appears that the Great Recession of 2008 was far more impactful on business aviation than the global pandemic. The following chart shows domestic and total US business jet operations from the FAA’s Monthly Business Jet Reports from 2000-2020 and 2021 data through October. Business jet operations reached a peak in 2007, with nearly 4.8 million operations. In 2008, operations fell by 10.53% and by an additional 17.6% in 2009, falling to 3.45 million movements. The Great Recession was a multi-year event that continuously impacted the business jet segment. The impact of the pandemic was swift and steep, but very short-lived. The major falloff began in March, but bottomed out in April, with a recovery in May-December that began to approach pre-pandemic levels. In 2021, beginning in March, operations began to rise well above pre-pandemic levels, as shown in the chart below: Despite the new pandemic variants in 2021, business jet operations are growing as an alternative to airline travel for those who can afford it, and demand for charter operations has been strong in recent months. Examining the data indicates that the Great Recession in 2008, with the industry yet to recover to 2007 levels of operations in 2021, was much more impactful than of the pandemic on the business jet industry. This is also borne out by GAMA data on aircraft billings and shipments. The following chart shows business jet deliveries by year from 2000-2021, with the last year only through three quarters. From a high of 1,313 deliveries at the peak in 2008, shipments feel markedly over the next years to 51% of that level and have not approached that level since. We anticipate 2021 being like 2020 in output, as deliveries through three quarters were increasing with 113, 151, and 174 being delivered in quarters 1-3, totaling 438 aircraft. We anticipate a fourth quarter nearing 200 aircraft that would bring the total near that of 2020 and bottoming out the impact of the pandemic. At that anticipated level, we would see a 20.4% drop from the pandemic, against a 48.9% drop from the Great Recession. The Bottom Line The Great Recession in 2008 has had a larger impact on the business jet industry than the global pandemic, and that the recovery from the pandemic should be quicker than from a typical economic downturn. The key question today is whether the upturn in business jet demand will remain permanently post-pandemic, and finally move the industry back to 2007 levels with a path to more robust growth? On this, the jury remains out. For our subscribers, we have now incorporated the FAA business jet activity database into our Decision Analytics library, enabling you to analyze business jet operations from 2000-2021 and segment the data by manufacturer and even down to each aircraft model. You try the model here.

US Flight Planner	Airbus vs Boeing
US Airline Schedule Performance	Daily Production & Deliveries

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