United wants more A321s and 787s

[UPDATED] At 4 pm EST, United just announced orders for 110 aircraft. This is made up of 50 Boeing 787-9s and 60 Airbus A321neos. The deal also includes 50 787 options plus 40 A321neo options. United expects to take delivery of about 800 new narrowbody and widebody aircraft between 2023 and the end of 2032. These latest orders follow on United’s December 2022 order for 100 Dreamliners, 200 MAX and 70 A321neo’s in June 2021 and 50 A321XLRs in December 2019. ----- News this morning from Bloomberg reported that United is about to place a "double-digit" order with Airbus for more A321s. United has an existing order for A321XLRs, the first of which is currently in flight test. United also has an aging order for A350s, but with time, that has withered. Perhaps this pending order is a way to clean up those old orders with something more suited to United's needs. The A321neo family is the industry's hottest ticket. Every serious airline wants them - well, except for Alaska. We explained that story earlier today. United Airlines is "family" to Boeing as one of its offspring - as is Pratt & Whitney. United once operated one of the largest 757 fleets, along with American and Delta. All three are switching to the Airbus A321ceo and neo. This story, told and retold over the years, never gets tiring to hear again. What was and is Boeing thinking? As you know, Boeing invented the middle-of-the-market single-aisle with the 757. That model sold over 1,000 and remains in service many years since it was last delivered new. It was and remains an excellent performer. The 757 became the aircraft equivalent of a size nine shoe; it could perform most missions. It was fast and reliable. Whether this order comes through (or not) only reminds us how badly Boeing fumbled this segment. The MAX9 and -10 don't offer the performance of the 757, nor do they match the A321neo family. That Boeing decided to stick with the MAX can be explained by resource shortages from the 787, 747-8, 777X, and KC-46 issues. Boeing's CEO insists the company won't offer a new airplane in the segment - despite precious resources spent on the NMA and other similar studies. Now, Boeing is working on the X-66A with funding from NASA. Data is an excellent way to share perspective. The following table comes from our delivery model, starting January 2021. The two highlighted rows tell the story of single-aisle deliveries. Airbus delivered (through October 2, 2023) 701 A321neos to 163 Boeing MAX9s. Airbus is ahead by a ratio of 4.3:1 in the past two and three-quarters years. [caption id="attachment_77558" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Single-Aisle Deliveries Jan 1, 2021-Oct 2, 2023[/caption] Boeing's aggressive recent push with the MAX10 proves that the company realizes the gap is growing too large. The MAX fumbles have pushed back the MAX10 entry into service to perhaps next year. The first MAX10s in flight test have United colors. That's right, United, the same airline with 75 A321XLRs on order, may be about to order a lot more. Commercial aviation is the quintessential long game. Deliveries are expected to operate for two decades. If you miss an order cycle, getting to another round takes a long time. Boeing should know this better than anyone. The company is 100 years old. Its corporate memory goes back to the origins of commercial aviation. What happened with the single-aisle MOM segment? The ability of Mr. Calhoun to say what he does about "no new airplane" must grate the old hands within Boeing. Developing new airplanes is what they do! Other industry observers have noted this time and again. Here's a great piece on this issue. Boeing shareholders and Wall Street analysts are not asking aggressively about this. Do these people see the X-66A as Mr. Calhoun's "airplane out of the hat?" We wonder. The duopoly is unstable, which isn't good for the entire industry.

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