Premium #117 – Scimitar Cuts Fuel Burn

Recently a number of airlines flying Boeing 737s have switched to the latest Aviation Partners’ (APB) winglet. The new device is called Split Scimitar, as shown in the image. Its shape is quite different from the previous blended winglets seen on 737s. United Airlines was the launch customer and other airlines have ordered the new Scimitar device. The new device is said to improve fuel burn from the previous winglet’s 3.5% to 5.5%, a very significant savings. The table lists the Scimitar orders to date. Southwest calculates that the blended winglet saved the airline 55 million gallons of fuel at an average $3.16 per gallon. In 2013, this amounted to $175m in savings, or 13% of the airline’s operating profit. The list price for winglets according to APB is $1 million (737) for the blended version (uninstalled) and for the Scimitar upgrade, another $555,000. Southwest has plans to retrofit 52 737-800s and forward fit 33 more set for delivery. The potential (we don’t think Southwest pays list prices) $47m cost can be recovered quickly. But an aircraft's wing in some cases must be reinforced to handle the additional weight, and the current blended winglet requires substantial strengthening prior to converting it to a Split Scimitar. In order to get a view from airlines we contacted several of the launch customers with a few questions. Is the current APB 737 winglet outdated? Copa – “I wouldn’t say it is outdated, as a matter of fact the new Scimitar Winglet is just a modification to the current winglet that provides additional reduction in fuel burn. This is how the technology works in aviation, continually looking for ways to improve safety and performance. For certain operators and depending on their type usage of the aircraft this modification may not be necessary.” Alaska – “Alaska still loves APB’s blended winglets. Over the years they have saved the airline millions of gallons of fuel. APB has found a way to make a proven, fuel saving product even better. “ United – “Not at all – it’s an improvement. It makes the existing winglet even better. We put winglets on every aircraft that we plan to operate for a long period of time. United burns close to about 1% of the world’s annual oil supply and expects that the winglets, when combined with the SSW, will save United more than $200M (or 65 million gallons) per year on a run rate basis.” Was APB’s reputation for delivering on the current 737 winglet sufficient to decide on the upgrade? Copa – “Of course. APB current winglet has provided airlines good savings and lower carbon footprint for the environment. They also have strong engineering group and have been very cooperative.” Alaska – “No. APB’s track record is stellar but we needed to verify the savings before we made another multimillion dollar investment in winglets. Our engineers looked at the data and estimated how the split winglets would perform in real world conditions on our fleet.” United – “Yes, APB has a very good track record of delivering on their commitments. We validate APB’s estimates before purchasing the winglets, but APB partners with Boeing to validate and audit the design using various tools such as CFD, wind tunnel testings and flight testing to prove their technology. . We definitely see savings when we install winglets, but are measuring very small percentages in fuel burn. The longer you cruise, the better the winglets perform.” How long do you estimate it will take to recover the cost of the upgrade? Copa – “I cannot tell you exactly how it works for us, but depending on the type of operation of the airline, on average, it should be between around two to three years to recover the cost.” Alaska – “The scimitar winglets will save 58 thousand gallons per aircraft per year. Using a reasonable fuel cost per gallon, we estimate that the total cost of the upgrade will be recovered in about two years.” United – “It depends on many different factors such as fuel price, stage length, utilization and whether you install the winglet on a stand-alone basis or in conjunction with other maintenance work, but we expect paybacks in about two years. What is the key driver to make the decision to switch to the Scimitar? Copa – “Mainly reduction in fuel burn and cleaner environment.” Alaska – “Once we verified the fuel savings, both the economic case and the environmental case were compelling. Consumers demand low fares and saving fuel helps us keep costs low so we can offer low fares. Alaska’s customers expect us to be good corporate citizens. Reducing energy use and carbon emissions is a crucial part of Alaska's commitment to be the airline industry leader in environmental stewardship.” United – “Being more fuel efficient was the key driver in our decision. Fuel is our biggest and most volatile expense. The winglets are a natural hedge. Not only is it good for the environment, but the more fuel efficient United is, the less volatile our expenses. ” Does your airline plan to retrofit 737s or only forward for on new deliveries? Copa – “We are installing it going forward, but we are also modifying a certain number of existing aircraft based on age, and type of operation.” Alaska – “We have already installed blended winglets on every jet in our fleet that is winglet capable. Our plan is to modify all of those units with the scimitar as quickly as practical. When complete, we will have split winglets on every winglet capable jet Alaska flies. Boeing’s 737-MAX will come with split winglets factory installed.” United – “Our plan is to put the Scimitar on all our 737s. As the launch customer, United has provided 737-800s and -900ER to APB for flight testing. Our new 737 deliveries will arrive with winglets installed by Boeing and then we will retro-fit with the SSW when it’s convenient. A -900ERmod is a simpler retrofit since the wing does not have to be reinforced like the 737-800.” Is there anything you can share on your decision process? Copa – “Our decision was based on our interest to reduce fuel burn and to help in protecting the environment. The performance of the existing Winglet also helped us in our decision making process.” Alaska – “Saving fuel has always been a priority at Alaska. We fly the most fuel efficient airline fleet in North America. The scimitar project was hatched by our fuel conservation manager, Mignon Hoover. Mignon reviewed the technical data and concluded that the savings were substantial. She helped assemble a team that included engineering, flight operations, maintenance, procurement and fleet experts. The group evaluated all aspects of the project, created a solid plan and put together a business case. Alaska’s leaders and board of directors wholeheartedly supported the project.” United – “Our decision to launch the SSW was fairly straight forward. The economics of the SSW are compelling and allows us to be more efficient and reduce our carbon emissions. We believe most 737 operators are going to adopt this technology. We plan to put the SSW on our entire fleet because of the savings and commonality benefits. With a common fleet, we can schedule the plane for more payload or range because it burns less fuel while simplifying our operation. The Bottom Line The Scimitar winglets should provide a significant improvement in economics, with a compelling return on investment. Just as blended winglets took hold in the industry, we believe Scimitar winglets will also gain increasing success, as a 2% savings in fuel burn, in an industry with tight margins, is compelling. Expect to see different looking winglets soon as airlines introduce them into their fleets.

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