Tracking Boeing’s recovery – yes it is happening

2024 can't end fast enough for Boeing. After several years of trying, this year may have been the most challenging for the OEM. The strike was the low point. However, the strike is over. The new CEO appears to have a vastly different management style than his predecessor. There have been some other senior management changes. Like every other industry watcher, we, too, have been looking for signs of a new dawn. It is in the early days, but there are signs — excellent signs. Yesterday, Bank of America said this: "Amid the recovery of its operations, Boeing published a revised production schedule last week, with a target production rate of 38/month by May 2025, followed by an increase to 57/month by 2027." These targets are ambitious, to put it mildly. We assume the company's management is reluctant to set themselves up for more opprobrium. These targets were published because there must be confidence that this signaling will not lead to more bad press. Karma being what it is, Boeing also announced a big order- 100 MAX 10s plus another 100 options for Pegasus Airlines of Turkey. This former Boeing customer switched to Airbus and is switching back. Considering the MAX 10 is not yet certified, this is big. Moreover, Pegasus is still taking deliveries from Airbus. By our count, the airline took 15 deliveries this year and has another three in the pipeline. Since the A321neo program started, Pegasus has taken 102 Airbus deliveries. Switching to Boeing is highly significant for a customer with such deep commitments to Airbus. Here are a few charts from our production and delivery model demonstrating a recovery at Boeing. Production Recovery [caption id="attachment_88976" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] We highlighted December because, looking back over the year, this month is #5 for production. This was a month after the strike, and there was a pause before MAX production was restarted. Plus, the month isn't over. Deliveries [caption id="attachment_88978" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] December is highlighted again because it shows a rapid recovery. We would guess this recovery will be quicker than most thought possible. As mentioned above, this quick recovery will become the foundation of Boeing's aggressive delivery targets. Bear in mind that Boeing has a significant inventory of MAXs that is almost ready to go. India's Role If the Chinese don't take their designated aircraft, India's airlines will. Indeed, our data suggests India's commercial aviation sector will be among the world's fastest-growing. Look at the chart for support. [caption id="attachment_88979" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] India is already among the Tier One markets we track. Its domestic market is consolidating as it matures and behaving more like other mature air travel markets. Even as the market consolidates, the industry load factor on domestic flights was 81.5% in October. Boeing is less dependent on China as its India market share and customers grow. The signals are there, showing promise. Industrialization Boeing is the world's oldest OEM. Boeing is a company that understands the nuances and challenges of industrializing an aircraft program. The past several years have not shown this, but in fairness, senior management has focused on items other than industrial efficiency, like financial performance, over everything else. Can Boeing get back its production mojo? There are signs that it is doing just that. Here's our evidence. The chart illustrates the days between the first flight and delivery for Boeing single-aisles. The diagram shows the 2024 performance. [caption id="attachment_88980" align="aligncenter" width="663"] AirInsight[/caption] If the curve declines over time, faster deliveries will result. You want to see a declining curve. Focusing on single-aisles is appropriate as the MAX is Boeing's bread and butter program, just as the A320neo is for Airbus. Here is further evidence of how this curve tells the story. The dashed trend line says it all. Boeing had to overcome the MAX grounding, and that event's impact is still felt. However, in terms of producing airplanes at Renton and having them ready for delivery, Boeing has done a great job. [caption id="attachment_88981" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Delivery days (the period between the first flight and delivery) are back at the rate before the grounding. How good is this performance? Based on our analysis, Boeing is now performing as well as its peers. [caption id="attachment_88982" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Conclusion The data suggests Boeing may have turned the corner after its lousy year. Bank of America provided data to support this idea, and our data also supports it. Moreover, even though Boeing has set stiff 2025 delivery targets, only an OEM like Boeing can achieve this. One last proviso on the 2025 delivery targets: supply chain failures could disrupt them. Boeing must clear out its MAX inventory to meet its targets.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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