COMAC’s ambitious 2025 C919 production plans

There has been a spate of news about COMAC's ambitious production plans. Reuters started the reporting with a story about 50 C919s for 2025. Other sources commented on COMAC's expanding FAL in Shanghai to accommodate these plans. As the news percolated, the OEM aims at "at least 30" C919s for the year rather than 50. The quote is: "COMAC anticipates it will dispatch 30 units of the C919 this year with a production capacity scale of up to 50 units,” the company’s vice-president Shen Bo said on Friday," according to news portal ThePaper.cn. Let's review this information from actual data. This first chart shows the OEM's deliveries and rather summarily dismisses the plans for 2025. Based on actuals to date, our forecast suggests that 30 will be reached closer to 2028. Crucially, this is for ALL of COMAC's production, both C909 and C919. [caption id="attachment_89352" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] COMAC's track record shows comparatively slow production. This is in no way a negative, just a recognition of reality. Last year, we published an upbeat story about COMAC. Look at the 2024 numbers to understand how ambitious the quote above is. COMAC is accelerating production, but it is starting from such a low base. [caption id="attachment_89353" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] The cornerstone upon which COMAC can make ambitious projections is shown in the following chart. [caption id="attachment_89354" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] This is where the rubber hits the runway: Industrialization and production efficiency drive deliveries. As the chart shows, COMAC has made impressive improvements. The C919 program has substantially improved production efficiency in just a few years. From 209 days to 34 over 48 months is very good. For context, the best single-aisle producer is Airbus, which has a time of ~13 days. Boeing has suffered several production challenges and is at ~50 days. Embraer is at 55 days. COMAC's 34 days are, therefore, a good performance. However, even cheering on COMAC's improvement must recognize that it produces too few aircraft, especially its best-seller, the C919. A substantial proportion of the C919's parts come from Western suppliers. Could they support production at a rate of 30 or even 50 at COMAC? Absolutely! Does China benefit from Russian titanium supplies, given Western sanctions on Russia? Yes. Key points show that COMAC could accelerate its production substantially in 2025. There are over 600 orders for the C919, so demand is there. Moreover, Vietnam may ease regulations to allow the C919 to operate there. We expect COMAC to attempt to double C919 production this year, which could take us to ~26. This would be a stellar outcome. Can they reach 30, as stated above? Perhaps. COMAC had an excellent 2024, and as we cheer on their 2025 goals, it is essential to be realistic. Subscribers can track their success using our daily updated model.

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