Signs of Boeing’s 737 MAX program progress

Boeing continues to make steady progress with its MAX program. Here's our data that demonstrates this. Using our daily production and delivery tracker, we created a subset focusing on the MAX program from its start through today. Our industrial metric, delivery days, becomes the guide to Boeing's improving performance. Here's how you use this model. The top left chart is interactive and drives the other two displays. You can click on any year, and it expands to show months, and clicking on months shows days. To go back, click Reset. The lower left chart shows production and deliveries. The takeaway is to see how dominant the MAX 8 is. Notes The MAX 8 dominance is a weakness because the program's family approach does not include the size operators buy. The absence of the MAX 10 is a serious flaw. On the other hand, the absence of the MAX 7 is a more minor flaw. However, that program is looking increasingly risky. Rumors are that Southwest Airlines, the key customer, is increasingly frustrated by the delays. Moreover, the new Southwest board is increasingly favorable to Airbus. It should be noted that Airbus needs A220 program support in terms of orders, as the backlog only lasts two years. Moreover, that program remains unprofitable, so Airbus will likely pitch aggressively if asked. Embraer cannot be dismissed, as its E195-E2 could also play a role in this category, even though it is slightly smaller. Embraer has entered a phase of aggressive marketing, as seen across the globe. Signs of Progress As our notes explain, Boeing's MAX program remains a work in progress. The critical issue is certifying the MAX 7 and 10, which is indeed job #1. However, the data show that Boeing is stabilizing its program. The average delivery day metric is improving, which means it is clearing out the parked inventory. This enables valuable skilled human resources to move from ghost factories to the Renton FAL. As the inventory declines, watch for signs of faster Renton production. The supply chain will support this because it must. A stable duopoly demands this support. Boeing's plan to achieve its FAA-limited rate 38 will likely be reached as the company predicted. Then, there will be a push to raise it further. The signs are clear that Boeing is well on its recovery path. It is out delivering, but not outproducing, Airbus. For Boeing to maintain its progress, the MAX program must achieve its former pace. It is early days, but it looks like this is happening.

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