China-bound MAX inventory thins again

At the end of 2024, it is estimated that Boeing had 55 MAXs in inventory, of which 25 were for Chinese customers. Over the weekend, Boeing delivered three MAX 8s that had been stuck in inventory for a long time. [caption id="attachment_92009" align="aligncenter" width="301"] AirInsight[/caption] As the table illustrates, these three have been languishing for a long time. The oldest is over six years old. What you are seeing is the cost of politics. The China/MAX situation has been cyclical and volatile. What does the data show us about Chinese deliveries from Boeing? As the chart shows, 2025 is running within the past five-year trend. Twice this year, there have been spikes. July looks down because we only have data through the 13th. [caption id="attachment_92010" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Here's another perspective on the 2025 data. [caption id="attachment_92011" align="aligncenter" width="366"] AirInsight[/caption] The MAX is the most critical model by volume. This is to be expected, as China had the largest number of aircraft in the MAX inventory. As pointed out above, this was political more than anything else. Regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum, one issue is clear. COMAC cannot supply the market with sufficient aircraft to satisfy demand. Nor can Airbus, and it is notable that their Tianjin FAL now supplies aircraft to EU customers, like easyJet. The political dam had to break because the reality is that without Boeing, Chinese airlines were suffering. And their suffering was greater than Boeing's, which had India as a backup. The return to regular business with China is essential not only to Boeing but also to its supply chain. A stable supply chain means that even COMAC benefits. Fortunately, the engine delivery fracas is also over. Of course, the stability also helps Airbus. Indeed, there are no losers when business is allowed to function without political posturing. Enough of the politics. The bottom line is that things are increasingly settling for the better. The primary winner now is Boeing. But the rising tide will lift the entire commercial aerospace industry. And for that reason, we should all be cheering.

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