Now that US sanctions on China have eased, we can see that COMAC is recovering. COMAC has faced US sanctions and export controls since 2020. These measures target COMAC's alleged ties to the Chinese military and aim to curb aviation technology transfers. COMAC's key programs—the narrowbody C919 (rival to Boeing 737 and Airbus A320), regional C909 (ARJ21 successor), and widebody C929—rely heavily on US-sourced components, including engines from CFM International (LEAP-1C for C919) and GE Aerospace (CF34-10A for C909), avionics from Honeywell and Collins Aerospace, and design software from Cadence and Synopsys. Sanctions have disrupted supply chains, delayed production, and forced COMAC toward localization efforts, though complete self-reliance remains years away. The supply chain disruption may have a larger impact on COMAC than on its Western rivals. And as we see in the West, supply chain disruptions can happen overnight, and recovery can take months, if you're lucky. Based on the data we have tracking COMAC's first flights and deliveries, it seems the OEM has begun to move past its recent political disruption. The chart below shows that the delivery day metric has changed. [caption id="attachment_132201" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] As we have noted before, the C909 (ARJ21) saw an improvement early on but has not made much progress since. It is this record that leaves so many industry observers skeptical of COMAC's ability to innovate its industrial base. The C909 curve shows no improvements as we see with other OEMs. However, with the C909, we see the traditional curve seen at other OEMs. Not only that, the C909's starting point is far lower than the C909's. Note, though, that in 2025 the C909's curve rose as supply chain impacts kicked in. Now let's dig into 2025 to see more details. The year started great for the C909, and the disruption hit in the summer, throwing off the improving trend. The C909 was on a steady rate for the first two months, tacking at approximately the same rates as the duopoly. The summer disruptions came for that program, too. [caption id="attachment_132202" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] While C909 kept climbing, the C909 had been through the worst by October. The trends now look better and, hopefully, will remain disruption-free going forward. That's the good news; now let's drop the other shoe. Production and deliveries are anemic. [caption id="attachment_132203" align="aligncenter" width="297"] AirInsight[/caption] Remember the COMAC talk of 75 deliveries this year? Here's a reminder of what we were told. [caption id="attachment_132214" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Were the sanctions and political disruptions a problem? For sure, but nowhere near as big as you would think. COMAC's targets were pie in the sky. State ownership apparently entails the need to say what the masters want to hear. Reality is another thing. Summary COMAC is doing better as we move into the last quarter. But it is so far behind—not only its competitors but even its own ambitions.
