COMAC is predicting that China’s fleet size will reach 9.957 aircraft by 2040, with the country accounting for 22 percent of the world’s passenger aircraft fleet, making it the largest single aviation market worldwide. The figure was disclosed by the Chinese aircraft manufacturer as part of its market forecast for the 2021-2040 period at the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition. The show is held this week in the southern Chinese city of Zhuhai, where COMAC presented its first business too. COMAC sees China’s fleet grow to nearly 10.000 by 2040. Through a Chinese language statement posted on its website, COMAC says Chinese operators will receive around 9.084 passenger aircraft configured with 50 or more seats over the next twenty years, with an approximate value of around $1.4 trillion. Out of the 9.084 over aircraft figure, this is broken down into 953 aircraft of “above the 50-seat” class, 6.295 single-aisle aircraft with at least 120 or more seats *which includes COMAC's own C919. The market has demand for another 1.836 aircraft configured with 250 or more seats. The report also predicts that based on China’s future GDP growth rate, the annual passenger numbers will grow by 5.7 percent on average, while the annual fleet growth would be at a slightly smaller rate of 5.2 percent on average. COMAC goes on to say the global passenger fleet will reach 45.397 aircraft by 2040. These global operators will receive around 41.429 new aircraft by 2040, with an approximate value of $6.1 trillion, and will primarily be used to replace older aircraft as well as to support future growth plans. Acknowledging the impact of Covid-19 on the global aviation industry, the report predicts demand for domestic air travel in China and the United States will recover first, followed by regional markets such as Europe. As for international air travel, demand will recover even more slowly. Based on these recovery rates, COMAC is of the opinion that the global aviation market will return to pre-pandemic levels as early as 2023. Boeing and Embraer also share China market forecasts Days prior to the Zhuhai exhibition, Boeing released its 20-year market forecast for China, as part of its 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO). The airframer believes that Chinese carriers will require 8.700 new aircraft by 2040, to meet the growing demand for air travel. It notes that China’s economic fundamentals will support the future increase in demand, including annual growth of 4.4% and a doubling of the middle-income demographic by 2040. Boeing says China’s domestic passenger market will exceed the intra-European market by 2030 and exceed that of North America’s by 2040. The CMO also predicts that two-thirds of future deliveries will support future growth, while the remaining one-third to be used as fleet replacement. Single aisle aircraft will account for nearly 6.500 deliveries, while widebody deliveries of passenger and cargo aircraft, will total around 1,850. Meanwhile, Embraer forecasted that 1.445 new aircraft in the up to 150-seat category will be needed by 2040. Around 77 percent of these new deliveries will be used for growth while the remaining 23 percent would be used as replacements. Although Embraer’s statement mentions the small number of E-Jets currently operating in China, the 91 aircraft used in the country are now being flown on 550 routes, connecting 150 cities within and outside of China. Guo Qing, Embraer China’s managing director and vice-president of commercial aviation, noted that the E-Jets were among the first aircraft types used to restore flight frequencies and will continue to play a role in the future. “In the post epidemic era, building a more efficient air transport system is of vital importance. The market calls for a more balanced fleet profile and route network structure to serve more secondary markets. That’s why we believe for the next 20 years, aircraft with up to 150 seats will fully release their potential,” says Guo Qing. COMAC shows CBJ Interestingly, COMAC has a very low public profile at the Zhuhai Airshow. The C919 is absent, only a few months before it is supposed to win certification and be delivered to China Eastern. Only a mobile digital cabin mock-up of the C919 is on show. Few updates have been given on other commercial aircraft programs as well. Some outlets repeated reports that COMAC and United Aircraft Corporation have started the production of the first CR929 wide-body. In a media release, COMAC says the project is "progressing smoothly." However, the Chinese airframer revealed its first business jet: the CBJ. The aircraft is based on the ARJ21 and was launched in 2015 as a large business jet. The interior has thirteen seats, divided over various areas. The CBJ took part in the flying display at the opening of the airshow. COMAC hasn't shared further specifications of the aircraft.
