GAMA releases Q3 Shipments and Billings

GAMA, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association, released third-quarter shipments and billings information from its member companies today. The data excludes Dassault, who report only on the half and full year. Nonetheless, the data provides a good snapshot of where the industry is today and a picture of how it has finally recovered from the global pandemic. Business Jet Strength The overall picture is best explained in the following chart, which aggregates data for the first three quarters of the year. Fixed-wing aircraft shipments were up 2% year over year, with billings up 12%. Business jets were up 10.6%, piston aircraft up 1.2%, and turboprops down 6.0%. [caption id="attachment_152722" align="alignnone" width="873"] data: GAMA[/caption] The rotary wing market was less robust, with piston helicopters down 4.5% and turbine helicopters down 3.1% through the third quarter. However, helicopter billings were up 16.1% year over year, reflecting a surge in higher-end aircraft. The Quarter Itself The third quarter itself showed weakness emerging at the bottom of the market, but continued strong performance in high-end business jets. The following table compares recent third-quarter data, with business jet deliveries finally exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic levels. The only concern is weakness at the low end of the market, with single-engine piston aircraft, which have dropped below 2023 levels. Both segments will be interesting to watch in the 4th quarter to determine whether a trend exists. [caption id="attachment_152735" align="alignnone" width="859"] data: GAMA[/caption] Helicopter shipments in the third quarter were below prior-year levels, reflecting continuing weakness in small helicopters but strength in larger and more expensive models. The Business Jet Market Business jets have shown resilience and exceeded pre-pandemic levels during the third quarter. Business jet deliveries are up 9,3% on 2019 levels and up 11.7% year-over-year during the quarter. The following chart shows a breakdown of deliveries by manufacturer. Through the third quarter, Gulfstream and Embraer have shown the most year-over-year growth, with 24 and 16 additional deliveries, respectively. The remaining players together accounted for 13 further aircraft, as success was not evenly distributed. The introduction of the G700 at Gulfstream and continued success with the Phenom and Praetor at Embraer fueled the industry's growth in the first three quarters of 2025. Total business jet volume for 2025 finally exceeded the pre-pandemic levels of 2019 in terms of the number of aircraft, indicating a sustainable recovery in the industry supply chain. [caption id="attachment_152736" align="alignnone" width="857"] data: GAMA[/caption] Shipments are Finally Above Pre-pandemic Levels From a shipments perspective, the market share history is shown in the following table: [caption id="attachment_152762" align="aligncenter" width="640"] data: GAMA[/caption] Gulfstream and Embraer gained the most market share, while Bombardier and Textron lost ground year over year. This year's market share is shown in the following pie chart. [caption id="attachment_152763" align="aligncenter" width="640"] data: GAMA[/caption] It is easy to discern trends when looking at market share data over the past seven years, as shown in the following chart, which tracks the first three quarters. It is clear that Cirrus and Embraer are on an upturn, and that Honda and Textron are headed in the opposite direction, with the remaining players maintaining their relative positions, with Gulfstream showing growth this year. [caption id="attachment_152764" align="aligncenter" width="640"] data: GAMA[/caption] Market Share Based on Billings Shows Gulfstream Gains in 2025 Gulfstream has introduced an entirely new product family over the last decade, including the G700 and G800, which entered service this year. The culmination of multiple development projects has led to a surge in sales at the top end of the market, resulting in substantial revenue. Gulfstream's $7 billion billings through the third quarter are pacing the industry, as shown in the following table: [caption id="attachment_152792" align="alignnone" width="875"] data: GAMA[/caption] With Gulfstream opening a roughly $2.8 billion gap over its traditional rival Bombardier, which were neck and neck in 2023, indicates the value of new models at the top end of the market. That battle, however, is not over as the Global 8000 is a very capable airplane and exceptionally competitive, as Gulfstream had pent-up demand for its new product line. But this is an important space to watch over the next three years as the latest models reach steady-state production and demand, with the Dassault Falcon 10X joining the fray. Embraer has shown steady growth in its recovery from the pandemic and is showing strong growth. Textron has also grown its billings, but at a much lower rate than its competitor. Historic market share in terms of billings through three quarters is shown in the following chart: [caption id="attachment_152793" align="aligncenter" width="640"] data: GAMA[/caption] Gulfstream has returned to the industry-leading 38% level that it held pre-pandemic. After rising in 2021-22, Textron declined in billings market share from 2023-2025, a trend to watch. Embraer has nearly doubled its market share over the last seven years. Current market share by billings for 2025 is shown in the following pie chart: [caption id="attachment_152794" align="aligncenter" width="640"] data: GAMA[/caption] Market share trends in billings are shown in the following chart, which shows billings over the last seven years. Notably, Bombardier and Textron have an up-and-down pattern like a classic tall building, while Gulfstream has a flatter top. Embraer and Cirrus are on a growth trend, while Dassault and Honda have a downward-trending line. [caption id="attachment_152925" align="aligncenter" width="640"] data: GAMA[/caption] The Bottom Line It appears that the general aviation industry is finally back to pre-pandemic levels in both units produced and billings, as supply chain constraints have generally been ameliorated. The question now is how high the recovery can go, particularly with business jets, which are experiencing strong demand. While we don't believe demand will reach the record levels seen during the last financial crisis in 2007-2008, it may exceed 900 business jets per year if the fourth quarter is strong.

No results