India Weekly: India Benefits from Boeing-China Tensions

Indian carriers Akasa Air and Air India Express are expected to benefit from escalating US-China trade tensions, which have prompted several Chinese airlines to reject or even return Boeing aircraft. One report suggests that as many as 20 additional Boeing planes could be redirected to India this year due to the fallout, and added that Boeing delivered 13 737 MAX jets and three 787 Dreamliners to Chinese carriers in the first quarter of 2025. Initially, 28 more MAX aircraft and one Dreamliner were scheduled for delivery to China over the rest of the year. This backdrop sets the stage for a potential windfall for Indian carriers. At Boeing’s annual India market outlook in February, company executives said they expect to deliver only 24 aircraft to Indian carriers in 2025 and 2026, a drop from the 32 jets reportedly delivered in 2024 to Akasa Air, Air India, and Air India Express. “We are going to deliver two planes per month to India during this year and next year. We are going to continue at that pace and grow slightly as we move forward,” said Ryan Weir, Commercial Sales and Marketing, India and South Asia, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Worse than the delays is the unpredictability of the delivery schedules. The delays are going to be prevalent for a while. What we are trying to fix is that airlines can count on when we give them a date, they receive the aircraft (on that date). That’s really the singular focus.” Hypothetically, the monthly average of two aircraft could rise to nearly four if Indian carriers—riding on resilient yields and sustained double-digit traffic growth—take up planes originally destined for China. India’s domestic air traffic grew by 11% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, according to DGCA data. Major airlines like IndiGo are projected to post a profit of around $300 million in the January–March quarter, reflecting strong airfares. However, delays in Boeing deliveries have frustrated Indian airlines even as IndiGo, an Airbus customer, has largely avoided these issues and plans to add roughly one aircraft per week this year, significantly outpacing rivals. The frustration could also be because both Air India Express (approximately 103 aircraft) and Akasa Air (around 27 aircraft) have grown rapidly over the past three years by absorbing "white tails"—undelivered Boeing jets initially built for other customers, including some with business class seating that were later retrofitted to fit an all-economy layout. Nearly 80 Boeing aircraft have joined their fleets since the pandemic began. But before the tariff war, Air India Express estimated that it would add around 15 aircraft in FY 2025, of which 11 would be new and four would be internal transfers from Air India. Of the latest additions, nine are reportedly white tails. Akasa Air, which is also expected to be an airline with over 30 planes, has already voiced its concerns over Boeing delays in the past. Still, in a recent town hall, CEO Vinay Dube confirmed the airline will grow from 27 to 30 aircraft by July. “Speaking of growth, our relationship with Boeing remains strong and collaborative, and the manufacturer is certainly getting back to its production glory of the past. We are in constant dialogue with them, and we remain confident about receiving our expected aircraft deliveries on time this year,” Vinay Dube, CEO, Akasa Air said in an all-employee internal communication seen by AirInsight post this town hall, “In fact, we will receive our 28th aircraft this month and are expected to reach a fleet size of 30 aircraft by July 2025. Following that, we will receive a steady stream of deliveries, paving the way for a sustained fleet and network expansion. It’s worth noting that no airline in the history of global aviation has grown at the pace we are growing today.” Akasa Air, which turns three this August, has already overtaken financially embattled SpiceJet in domestic market share, holding 4.5% compared to SpiceJet’s 3.2% as of March 2025. Akasa has 199 Boeing aircraft on order for delivery over the next seven years. Redirecting aircraft to India helps Boeing mitigate delivery disruptions to China and strengthens its foothold in a fast-growing market. The Airports Council International (ACI) projected this month that India will surpass China in air passenger traffic growth rate by 2026, with a 10.5% growth in 2026 and 10.3% in 2027, compared to China’s projected 8.9% and 7.2% growth, respectively. Having lost ground in India following Jet Airways’ collapse in 2019 and SpiceJet’s decline, Boeing is now relying on Akasa Air and Air India Express to regain market share. AirInsight monitors Boeing's deliveries and has been quoted on India's role in helping Boeing.

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