Insight: Monday 11 May 2020: How Safe is Flying Today?

News:
Several airline executives, including Gary Kelly of Southwest, have said they believe it is safe to fly during the current epidemic. “I don’t think the risk on an airplane is any greater risk than anywhere else, and in fact, you just look at the layered approach that we use. It’s as safe as an environment as you’re going to find,” he said on CBS Face the Nation.

Airliners are equipped with HEPA filters that are higher rated than those used in hospitals to provide passengers with clear air. But have the risks been eliminated?

Analysis:
The airplane may be the safest part of the trip. But there remains a risk of virus transmission either through the air and on high-touch surfaces. Unfortunately, we do not have research data on whether the SARS-Cov-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 illness has spread between passengers, but prior outbreaks, including SARS in 2003 and more recently H1N1 have been found to have spread among airplane passengers.

The potential for small aerosol droplets from an infected patient presents a risk, but opinions differ on how widespread the diffusion of those particles could be. Some suggest that the virus could travel seven rows around a sick passenger within four minutes. Other studies suggest that the virus may travel only two seats laterally and two rows in front of and behind a sick passenger. Either way, the risk is not zero.

High touch surfaces also present a potential transmission risk. Bathroom doorknobs, lock levers, flush levers, and sinks are all high touch surfaces that are not normally sanitized between passengers. Since the virus causing COVID-19 can apparently exist for extended periods on metal surfaces, the potential for transfer of the virus exists.

Insight:
The biggest difference between an airplane and, say, the grocery store is in the former, social distancing isn’t possible, while in the latter you can walk away from someone. Even with masks and middle seats blocked, an infected person could still impact nearby passengers.

But on-board isn’t the only concern. The airport environment is normally full of places where people interact, including the security lines and airplane boarding process. While new rules for social distancing have been introduced, they aren’t always followed,  and people can get too close in each of these processes. Add to this the restaurants, shopping areas, and airport lounges, and the opportunity to spread the disease clearly exists. While the corridors in an airport aren’t as crowded as they would normally be, the risk levels are clearly above zero and greater than staying at home, even if masked.

Until the level of infection risk is dramatically reduced, with extremely few cases and limited risk of transmission, a substantial portion of the public will not want to take the risk of flying on a commercial airliner. But it will likely take another year before consumers truly feel the pandemic has ended.

Despite the pleas of airline CEOs stating that it is safe to return to the air, most passengers are preferring to wait and defer travel, even though areas are beginning to re-open from lockdown. While there are great bargains, I’m not about to jump on a plane for Lombardy this summer, nor likely take a vacation by air in the near term.

This recovery is going to take longer than we hoped.

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