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Southwest’s 737-700 Problem Harder to Ignore

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Southwest’s 2Q26 was a solid beat on profitability but a mixed print overall: adjusted EPS came in at $0.94 versus $0.51 expected, while revenue of about $8.4 billion missed consensus by a small amount. The bigger issue for the airline is that management trimmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $3.25-$4.25 and guided 3Q adjusted EPS to $0.50-$0.75, which looks softer than Street expectations.

Operationally, 2Q26 looks like a good quarter: demand was strong, revenue was up 30%, and the company showed it can expand margins despite higher fuel. But the lowered full-year outlook

tells you management still sees pressure ahead, so the setup is more “earnings resilience with cautious guidance” than a clean re-rating story.  Let’s look at our charts for more.

The Charts

The 737-700 is a growing problem

Starting with Mechanical Disruptions, the data is through May.  Notice that 2026 is already showing Southwest headed in the wrong direction. Every other airline (Spirit excluded) showed an improvement.

Southwest’s 2Q26 was a solid beat on profitability but a mixed print overall: adjusted EPS came in at $0.94 versus $0.51 expected, while revenue of about $8.4 billion missed consensus by a small amount. The bigger issue for the airline is that management trimmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $3.25-$4.25 and guided 3Q adjusted EPS to $0.50-$0.75, which looks softer than Street expectations.

Operationally, 2Q26 looks like a good quarter: demand was strong, revenue was up 30%, and the company showed it can expand margins despite higher fuel. But the lowered full-year outlook tells you management still sees pressure ahead, so the setup is more “earnings resilience with cautious guidance” than a clean re-rating story.  Let’s look at our charts for more.


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