Why Akasa Air needs the 737 MAX 10, fast |

Some time ago, Reuters reported that India's Akasa Air expects its MAX 10 in 2027. When it placed an order for 150 MAXs, this caught much attention. After all, this was a start-up airline in the brutally competitive Indian market. The Indian air travel market has been growing at a fantastic pace. Moreover, India's traffic volume places it among the most significant aviation markets, along with the US, China, and the EU. The chart lists domestic traffic. [caption id="attachment_90536" align="aligncenter" width="640"] DGCA; AirInsight[/caption] The chart shows that passenger growth had risen above flight growth by the end of 2024. This is important because India has seen airlines come and go. As airlines left the market, passenger traffic seemed unfazed. It kept growing. Look at the history of the Indian domestic load factor. It dipped because of the pandemic, but like other markets, it shot right back up again. [caption id="attachment_90537" align="aligncenter" width="839"] DGCA; AirInsight[/caption] Demand for air travel in India is growing as the country's wealth rises, consistent with other maturing economies. Next, look at his chart for the average number of passengers per flight. [caption id="attachment_90538" align="aligncenter" width="838"] DGCA; AirInsight[/caption] As we see in the US, India is also seeing a slow and steady pace for upsizing aircraft on domestic services. With this background, let's focus on Akasa Air. Despite the short period this airline has been flying, its performance is remarkable. [caption id="attachment_90539" align="aligncenter" width="718"] DGCA; AirInsight[/caption] Akasa's latest load factor is 94% compared to the national average of 86.3%. The industry average is 152 passengers per flight, while Akasa is 176. Akasa came on to the market with exquisite timing. The MAX had been grounded, and Boeing was sitting on many airplanes destined for China. As Chinese airlines demurred on deliveries, Akasa stepped into the vacuum. The following chart shows deliveries from Boeing to Akasa. [caption id="attachment_90540" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] The "delivery days" show how old some early deliveries were. These were parked MAXs destined for China. The most recent deliveries are far newer and came off the enton line rather than from inventory. The following chart forecasts India's domestic traffic for the industry. Growth slows as the market matures. [caption id="attachment_90541" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Then, using the same parameters for Akasa, we get this. [caption id="attachment_90542" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] With a brief history showing market-beating growth, is it surprising that Akasa needs the MAX 10? Our forecast shows Akasa hitting 197 passengers/flight in 2027. In the Indian market, we are accustomed to focusing on IndiGo. Regarding MAX 10, we are focused on Ryanair, Delta, and United. It turns out we need to watch Akasa, too!

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