Will COMAC’s new C919 versions become a reality?

Various specialized and social media have reported on two new versions of the C919 that Chinese airframer COMAC unveiled at two separate events earlier this month. COMAC intends to grow the C919 family to include a stretched and shortened version. Are these realistic projects that will ever become a reality? TheAirCurrent shared the news of the two new versions on November 9, after COMAC had a model of the stretched aircraft on display at the 2023 International Import Expo in Shanghai. Last week, two different models of the stretched and shortened C919 were presented at the Shanghai International Commercial Aviation & Aerospace Industry Exhibition. As usual, COMAC offered limited details of the versions. The ‘C919 stretched variant’ is said to offer 210 seats. This compares to the maximum of 192 seats that the airframer quotes for a flexible cabin layout for the standard C919, although the mixed class version with 158 seats, a single class version with 168 seats, and a high-density version with 174 are the usual offerings. COMAC hasn’t shared details either of the range of the Stretched Variant, which is 2.000nm for the C919ST and 3.000nm for the C919ER. The new version “can meet operational needs between the main cities in China and the Asia Pacific region,” the airframer said on a screen in Shanghai. It also said that the “extended type conforms to the trend of large-scale development in the single-aisle aircraft market.” This is a direct reference to upgauging, where larger, higher-density narrowbodies are favored over smaller versions. The perfect example is of course the Airbus A321neo, which has outsold the A320neo and A319neo by far. The same applies to the Embraer E195-E2 versus the E190-E2, but Boeing has still sold more MAX 8s and -8200s than any other versions. Shortened/plateau version As such, the ‘C919 shortened/plateau’ with just 140 seats in a two-class configuration defies the trend of upgauging. However, in the presentation material that COMAC provided in Shanghai, it said that this version “can meet the need of civil aviation transportation in high plateau areas.” This indicates that this is a niche version, specially targeted for many domestic airports at higher altitudes and routes like Lhasa (Tibet) to Chengdu. It could be that COMAC intends to offer this version as a future replacement of the ARJ21. This aircraft has been certified by the CAAC for high-altitude operations but comes with only 78 to 97 seats. A shortened C919 would add some 40 to 50 seats. COMAC flight tested the standard C919 at high-altitude airports in July 2020. The only aircraft that comes close to the shortened C919 is the Airbus A319neo. China Southern is one of the few customers of this type and has nine on order, of which four have been delivered. The airline flies them with four Business Class and 132 Economy Class seats. COMAC shared these details of its widebody aircraft in Paris in June. The aircraft is now called C929. (Richard Schuurman) Widebody ambitions It’s no secret that China has high ambitions to develop its own commercial airliners, building on the C919 to eventually produce its own widebody jets. At the International Import Expo in Shanghai, COMAC for the first time presented the aircraft previously known as CRAIC CR929 under its own COMAC C929 brand. Already in June at the Paris Airshow, it was evident that the partnership between Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and COMAC had been disbanded on the back of various political issues. The aircraft shown in Paris lacked any reference to the Russian partnership and was simply called 'long-range widebody.' However, the timeline for the C929 is totally unclear and this also applies to the two new versions of the C919. COMAC has delivered just two C919s in the past twelve months, both delivered to and in service with China Eastern Airlines. Production of the type has been very slow until now and the airframer really needs to step up if it wants to clear the backlog of some 1.000 aircraft, including firm orders and options. This includes 100 aircraft ordered by China Eastern in September. Unless COMAC can guarantee a swift entry into service of the two new versions, potential customers will unlikely will wait for them to satisfy short and medium-term demand. In July 2022, China Eastern, China Southern, and Air China together bought 292 Airbus A320neo family aircraft, of which the A321neo is the most popular. Boeing has 118 unfilled orders for the MAX with various Chinese customers. While deliveries to China still have to begin, the delays have been mostly for political reasons. The safety of the MAX is no longer questioned in China after the type was recertified by the CAAC almost a year ago. The market opportunities of the two new COMAC versions might also depend on Embraer. Although the E2 family hasn’t won any sales campaigns in China yet, both the E190-E2 and E195-E2 have been certified by the CAAC. Embraer has been aggressively pitching the type with various potential customers in recent months and is very optimistic that this will result in concrete orders in the very near future. The Brazilians have also said that they would consider opening an assembly line in China if this makes sense. Both E2 sales and a production line in China could mean strong competition to COMAC.

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