2025 Aviation Recovery: What OEM Data Really Shows

Has 2025 been the recovery year we have all been waiting for? The pandemic dealt the industry's most significant blow in its history—previous shocks, such as oil price spikes, wars, and SARS, pale by comparison. This chart gives you a sense of OEMs' first flights, which are production proxies. A couple of things to note: The rise in production from the arrivals of NEO and MAX is eye-popping The pandemic's hit is plain to see, but then so is its resilience in recovering That recovery also shows how the supply chain was thrown off as it lost high-skilled workers who were retired, too soon, the classic overreaction [caption id="attachment_160453" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Because we can visualize you thinking - here's the chart for Airbus. The item to note above is the typical horizontal S-shape, and at Airbus, that shape turns into a spike in 4Q year after year. The chart does not detail it, but those spikes also reflect the switch from A320neo to A321neo. This is one of the greatest Airbus stories and also one of Boeing's biggest blunders. [caption id="attachment_160455" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Here's the chart for Boeing. The chart clearly shows the impact of the pandemic, followed by the MAX grounding. Boeing took a hit that few companies could recover from. Then, in 2024, we have the impact of flight AK 1282. Then came the FAA rate limit. Ouch, over and over again. [caption id="attachment_160456" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] 2025 First Flights Here we show what 2025 looks like through December 10. The duopoly averaged 12 first flights per week. Note Airbus spiking as its engine shortages eased. Lots of gliders are finding their way to first flights. The dropoff in Boeing's numbers is puzzling. Our first thought is that as the MAX inventory eases, first flights must start to match production. But the December dropoff seems too steep for that to be the only reason. RBC, in a note, stated "Despite the month-over-month decrease, we believe investors were expecting a slower quarter of deliveries from Boeing, as the company should have less MAXs in inventory to deliver". Even if some think the dropoff is in line with expectations, we sense it's too steep. [caption id="attachment_160459" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Now let's look at 2025 deliveries. The duopoly has averaged 11 deliveries per week to date. That's almost equal to the first flights. Given the upsets Boeing has endured and Airbus' engine challenges, that is impressive. The chart below shows how Boeing worked through that inventory. This is almost certainly a fascinating story. How the marketing and sales team managed to find customers to take deliveries surely required fancy footwork. Meanwhile, Airbus had to keep its FALs busy building aircraft only to park them while waiting for engines to catch up. There must have been many frustrating phone calls to engine OEMs and awkward calls to customers. [caption id="attachment_160488" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Looking at the industry's delivery performance over time, we see this. Notice that regular pattern again, but in 2024 and 2025 it's gone—the 4Q spikes in almost every year. We have three weeks to go before we know how December works out. [caption id="attachment_160490" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The key point is that the industry briefly exceeded its pre-pandemic delivery rate. Does the chart then show that customers have reached their peak in their ability to support delivery rates? The drop-off in 2024 and 2025 is interesting, though 2025 is still a work in progress. We suspect that 2025 might see deliveries meet or even exceed 2023. As always in this industry, we live in interesting times!

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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