Boeing 2025: MAX Orders Surge as Deliveries Stabilize

With Boeing’s numbers in, we updated our model.

Notes:

• Boeing is having an excellent year with the MAX

  .

• Not so much with the 777X, although there’s been positive news overnight.
• The chart below hints at the good news.  Look at that orders curve for 2025—customers have come back. Long gone are the dark days of 1,000 MAX cancellations.
• Also, note the rise in deliveries.  This is driven by MAX and 787 deliveries being delivered ASAP.  This month, we saw two aging 787-10s ordered by Vietnam and not taken up, moved to TAAG.

Looking at October in perspective, notice that deliveries have been stable but rising slowly and steadily.  This is positive news because Boeing had to meet FAA quality standards.  Crucially, it also had to mollify frustrated customers; looking at you, Michael O’Leary.

Boeing has a way to go yet. The 777X, MAX 7, and MAX 10 all need certification.  The first and last of these three are crucial to Boeing.  It’s fair to say that, at this stage, the OEM looks better placed than it has been for years. The growth in South Carolina is yet another good signal.