Randy Tinseth, Boeing’s VP of Marketing, presented the company’s Current Market Outlook forecast at the Paris Air Show today. In this post, we will highlight some of the elements of their forecast. The full CMO, which is a 54mb download, is available here.
Randy began with a background on the forecast, some historical comparisons with the 1997 forecast, which was lower than actual, and then delved into Boeing’s forecast. He spoke of the headwinds in the market, both economic and geopolitical, that could potentially impact the industry and were considered as Boeing put together its forecast. The Current Market Outllook is the result of comprehensive modeling of a number of factors, and is a massive effort to put together.
Boeing projects that airlines will need 41,030 aircraft valued at more than $6.1 trillion over the next 20 years. Of that mix, the vast majority will be narrow-body aircraft, 72%, with the remaining 28% shared between wide-body, regional jets and freighters. 5,050 of the projected aircraft are small wide bodies, 3,160 medium/large wide bodies, 2,370 regional jets, and 920 freighters.
Breaking down demand further, of the 41,030 new aircraft forecast in the Current Market Outlook, 23,470 will be for growth, 17,560 will be for replacement of existing aircraft, with 5,920 of the existing fleet remaining in service 20 years from now for a total fleet of 46,950 aircraft in 2036.
Geographically, Asia will surpass North America as the largest market for aircraft, accounting for 39% of deliveries and 41% of market value, with North America second at 21% and 17%, respectively.
The Bottom Line
Boeing is 3.5% more optimistic this year than last year’s CMO, which projected a 20 year need for 39,620 aircraft. Airbus, in its Global Market Forecast issued two weeks ago, projects 34,900 new aircraft over the next 20 years, highlighting a divergence in forecasts between the two major players. Two decades from now, we’ll know whose forecast was better. Even with the difference between the forecasts, the clear trend is continued robust growth in the industry, which is good news for all of us.