Premium #209 – The Super-Twin Battle Extends Upward

Airbus is pre-marketing a new concept, a 400 seat stretched version of the A350, tentatively dubbed the A350-8000. This new model would compete directly with the 406 seat 777-9. According to John Leahy, the new model would have similar capacity and range as the 777-9 with substantially lower seat-mile costs. Our analysis of the Super Twin market in 2013 projected that it would become a competitive necessity for Airbus to match the 777-9 in seating capacity to more effectively compete in this market. It appears that Airbus is now moving aggressively in that direction. This model, which had been referred to as the A350-1100 by some in the industry; it offers approximately 40 seats more than the A350-1000, which offers about 40 more than the baseline A350-900. The A350-8000 would provide a direct competitor to the 777-9 and fill a gap in Airbus product line between the A350-1000 and much larger A380-800. So the competition evolves to a stretched model of a new design versus a re-engined model of an older design. With the A350XWB being about 7.5% lighter, with its carbon fiber composite construction, it likely will be more fuel efficient and have lower trip costs than the heavier and wider derivative model from Boeing. Why Now? Why a larger twin from Airbus at this point in time? For one, lower fuel prices have negated the short-term need for a re-engined A380neo, which remains quite competitive in economics for airlines that can generate the traffic to fill the aircraft. As a result, Airbus has an opportunity to shift its priorities and fill the gap that Boeing is currently exploiting with the 777-9. Low fuel prices bring an opportunity to once again play leapfrog. The new model would be powered by a derivative of the Rolls Royce TrentXWB engine used on the A350-1000, with a thrust increase from 97,000 lbs. to 100,000 lbs. for this application. Maximum take-off weight for the A350-8000 would increase to just over 702,000 lbs from the 679,000 lbs for the A350-1000. Airbus is already indicating that the A350-8000 will be lacking in “high-hot” performance often required for the operations in the Middle East, and indicates that it will optimize the A350-8000 for operators outside the Gulf region. The lack of high-hot performance would make this a difficult aircraft to sell to the Gulf three, but as those airlines have already made fleet decisions and played a major part in the launch of the 777X, Airbus may perceive little opportunity for the new model in that region. Currently, Boeing has sold 306 777X compared to 181 A350-1000 models at Airbus. Boeing’s Randy Tinseth said that Boeing was not surprised that Airbus is attempting to fill a hole in its product lineup after losing market share to the 777X. He indicated that at the end of the day, Boeing would still have the better aircraft. We understand that Airbus is already in discussions with Singapore and British Airways as potential launch customers for the program, as each will operate other A350 models, providing substantial commonality benefits. If Airbus is given a go-ahead in 2016, it should be able to complete the new model by 2020-21, close to the same time frame as the Boeing 777-9 is scheduled for EIS. The Market Niche The largest Super Twins will be the replacement for the venerable Boeing 747-400, which despite lower fuel prices, are leaving airline fleets as the aircraft continue to age and MRO costs rise. The 747-8 has not caught on as a replacement, given inferior economics, and the A380 is too large for many operators. With operators looking for the most-efficient replacement for trunk routes, the 777-9 and A350-8000 will be among the logical choices for long-haul trunk routes.

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