Air Canada Orders A350-1000s, Snubs Boeing 777X

Big news from Canada this morning. Air Canada disclosed a firm order for eight A350-1000, marking a pivotal upgrade to the airline’s long-haul fleet strategy with an additional eight options. The order was listed as undisclosed in November 2025. Why this is big Air Canada's fleet is listed in the following table. For the news, we focus on the widebodies. Air Canada used to operate A340s, which were replaced by 787s. The airline has 2o A330s, a 'Size 9' model if there was one. They will likely fly these until the end of their useful life. There are 25 777s in the fleet, along with 40 787s and another 14 787s on order. Today's news about the 8+8 A350-1000s needs to be looked at in terms of what the airline has now and what it needs to replace. Guidance comes from this language in the PR: "aircraft will be central to the airline’s global expansion, enabling seamless, non-stop connectivity from Canada to high-growth markets across the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, and Australia." The focus is on long-range markets. That means the 777LRs will be replaced first. This is a great choice, as that model is finding a second life as a freighter. Putting them on the market optimizes their value. But the full order of 16 means Air Canada can also replace the remaining 777-300ERs. That will leave it short on capacity. However, the 787-10s close that gap and even potentially replace the A330s. The economics of the A350 and 787-10 are state-of-the-art. This A350 order ensures Air Canada has, alongside the 787-10s, the capacity it needs at optimal economics. No 777x This is the unspoken news. Boeing's 777X delays have disrupted that model's potential. Air Canada would be a natural customer as the 777-9 offers the range and payload to reach these new markets. There would be no costs for pilot retraining, for example. Any airline with 777-300ER experience is a natural for consideration of the 777-9. The 777-9 is expensive, which makes it attractive to many but affordable to few. Air Canada is one of the many that can afford this model. Switching to the A350 is therefore a significant signal. Here's some further evidence to help understand the tradeoffs. First, Air Canada's widebody numbers, based on Skailark's data. The chart clearly illustrates the reason Air Canada needs to 'fix' the 777LR situation. The 777-300ER is close behind. If you're doing network planning at the airline, what would you do differently? [caption id="attachment_189172" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Now, to provide an industry-wide perspective, here's Skailark's data showing global fleets. The question about fleet planning above restated here would lead you to the same answer. You would buy the A350-1000 because it delivers the best numbers at that size. And, crucially, it's available now. Ergo, order it. [caption id="attachment_189173" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] OEM delivery skylines Patience is a virtue, they say. Well, it may be, but there's a limit. OEM delivery skylines are over a decade out. Traffic is back to its longterm growth levels. If you don't get your order in, the wait for replacement lift is going to hurt. FOMO is stronger than patience. In summary, a natural and smart move by Air Canada. Now think about the United A350 order that is a decade old, and how that airline might have benefited today.

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