MHIrj should build a new regional jet, and Embraer is unlikely to stop it. The CRJ team has the skills, the support network, and a launch customer looking for an alternative. Its CRJ9 also disrupts about 1.6x as often as Embraer’s E175, per our analysis.
The Problem
We have said it before. Scope Clause is an awful policy. It taxes the airline industry and travelers, and it benefits mainline pilots. Our view is highly unpopular with pilots. It’s not personal, just business.
Scope Clause is why US regionals struggle to renew their fleets. The choice is a new E175 or a refurbished CRJ. That is a 20-year-old choice, and it is sub-optimal.
The focus here is MHIrj, because it could be the OEM that makes an impact. It owns what was the Canadair and then Bombardier regional jet program. How it got here matters less than where it goes next.
Today MHIrj supports about 1,300 CRJs in global service. About half operate in the US. Its parent, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, is still smarting from SpaceJet. That caution is a shame. In MHIrj, MHI has exactly the team to derisk a new program.
MHIrj tried a side door. It helped Maeve Aerospace, the Dutch developer. SkyWest became an equity investor and took exclusive launch customer rights in September 2025. Maeve then collapsed in June 2026. The SkyWest deal should have carried the program. It wasn’t enough. Margins are thin, and the Scope Clause throttles technical creativity.
Embraer feels no pressure. It is the sole Western regional jet OEM. If it tweaks the E175, it will be at the margins.
Behind the break: how much worse the CRJs run, what SkyWest’s fleet shows, what a new program costs, and how Embraer reacts.
Disruption figures are from US DOT On-Time data and AirInsight models. The 2026 data runs through August. Everything above is public. The analysis below is what AirInsight subscribers pay for.
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