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Daily Insight: Friday 5 April 2019: How Real is Airbus 300 Aircraft Order from China?

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News

The Airbus order from China signed last week at a head of state visit of Xi Jinping with Emmanuel Macron for 300 aircraft apparently includes repeat announcements of existing deals, and potential future deals that have not yet emerged as firm orders.  The announcement was primarily political in nature, rather than a new firm order for 300 aircraft.

This order is similar to the 300 aircraft “umbrella order” that Boeing received from China during a state visit with Donal Trump in 2017.  The Airbus

deal would have totaled about $35 billion at list prices, but between repeat announcements and discounts, the net new orders will be about a third of that total, at best.

Analysis

Aircraft deals in China are two-tiered, as the government must approve of deals negotiated with the airlines.  As a result, contracts are not truly firm until government approvals are obtained, which can often be at head of state events where they draw news coverage.