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Daily Insight: Friday 21 June 2019: The A321XLR is the Boeing 757 replacement

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News

Airbus launched the A321XLR at the Paris Air Show and immediately secured commitments for 206 commitments and 24 options from a lessor and ten airlines.  This quickly demonstrated the success of the new model, which will be deployed as a replacement for long-haul Boeing 757s by airlines worldwide.

With a range of 4,700 nautical miles, the A321XLR provides the longest range of any single-aisle aircraft currently in production with a similar number of seats as the 757-200.  When compared with the 737MAX10, the A321neo, A321LR

, and A321XLR provide a variety of models that replace the 757 depending on range requirements for domestic and international flights.  It is outselling the MAX10 in the large category by a 4:1 margin, with these new orders nudging the ratio closer to 5:1.

Analysis

There were 1,049 Boeing 757s delivered during its production run, and 1,151 Boeing 767s.  That was the middle of the market over two decades, about 2,200 aircraft.  Let’s assume that the “middle of the market” that was defined by those two aircraft has doubled.  That would mean about 4,400 aircraft in the MoM segment for replacement and growth.  This is slightly lower than Boeing’s market projections of 6,000 in their forecast, but a conservative number on which to build a low business case scenario.

Airbus launched the A321XLR at the Paris Air Show and immediately secured commitments for 206 commitments and 24 options from a lessor and ten airlines.  This quickly demonstrated the success of the new model, which will be deployed as a replacement for long-haul Boeing 757s by airlines worldwide.

With a range of 4,700 nautical miles, the A321XLR provides the longest range of any single-aisle aircraft currently in production with a similar number of seats as the 757-200.  When compared with the 737MAX10, the A321neo, A321LR, and A321XLR provide a variety of models that replace the 757 depending on range requirements for domestic and international flights.  It is outselling the MAX10 in the large category by a 4:1 margin, with these new orders nudging the ratio closer to 5:1.


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