Insight: When is the Optimal Time to launch the Airbus A220-500?

When asked about launching the A220-500, Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer

has publicly stated “it’s not if, but when”. Considering the “when” is therefore rather important. After all, the A220-500 as currently understood would be  ~160-seater with a range of ~2,500 nautical miles.  This is essentially what the A320ceo and 737-800 are today. Both models have been replaced by successors, with about the same capacity and more range. When is the optimal time to launch the A220-500?

Since Airbus gets to make the call, it is not as concerned with the A220-500 impact on the A320neo. As a senior Airbus manager once shared with us, “We don’t care if it’s an Airbus that replaces an Airbus – as long as it’s Airbus”.  Consequently, when the trigger gets pulled the target will be the 737.

The 737NG has been highly successful – so successful that Boeing’s first response to the A320neo (in 2011 American was working on its huge order) was to offer the NG. American balked and Boeing responded with the MAX and won half the order. Boeing at the time was confident the NG could compete with the neo. But the customer wanted something newer. The MAX went on to become Boeing’s fastest-selling model. From there, things should have moved along with the single-aisle market hovering around 50/50 market share.  But then there were two MAX crashes and a tectonic market shift occurred.