Insight – United’s twin-aisle replacement choices |

There has been a steady stream of news reports about United Airlines looking at replacing its aging 767s and 777-200s. As a launch customer for both aircraft, United has seen many years of service from these two models. What can we say about United's twin-aisle replacement choices? Replacing these two models is not going to be easy - the 787-8 is a "natural" replacement for the 767-300ER. But the 787-8 has a much longer range and may be overkill. The 777-200ER could readily be replaced by the 787-9 or 787-10, especially the HGW versions that are coming. As a typically Boeing-oriented customer, one would expect United to follow this path. United does have 45 A359-900s on order with delivery dates starting 2027. But this order has probably become softer over time. It started in 2013 as an order for A350-1000s. The HGW 787s are a response to the A350's success. Of course, while we are discussing Airbus, the A330neo is an excellent alternative to replace the 767-300ER. And, we expect, it likely comes at a lower price than the HGW 787. United paid deposits on that Airbus order and eventually has to "do something. The 767-300ER is tough to replace as there is no natural replacement. The 777-200 is easier to replace given the available choices from Airbus and Boeing. The table lists United's twin-aisle fleet for active aircraft and orders. The grayed-out section lists the models being considered for replacement. In total this covers 127 aircraft and, if ordered at once, would be a blockbuster order. This is to say that Airbus and Boeing will fight for this deal - which is what United wants. Of course, the aircraft listed as orders is what throws in a complication. United favors Boeing. United, after all, is part of the original Bill Boeing combine. The Boeing 787 should work well as a replacement for the 767s and 777s. After all, American used the 787-8 as a 767-300ER replacement. It's not unheard of. Moreover, ensuring fleet commonality is an established smart move. But what happens with those A359-900s? Incidentally, United also has a chunky order for A321s. So Airbus isn't out of the question. United could decide to operate both Airbus and Boeing fleets as part of a de-risking move. After all, once an airline reached a certain size, this is a smart choice. This table explains why Airbus should not be dismissed from consideration. Writing that we realize is still a long shot given United's deep Boeing ties. The following table lays out the operating costs per seat/Hour for twin-aisles aircraft among US airlines. The table makes a clear case for retiring the 767-300ERs. They cost 36% more to operate than the 767-400ERs. The 787-10 is the lowest cost aircraft in US operations and, at this writing, is exclusively used by United. It would be surprising if United didn't want more. Especially HGW versions. Now, look at the numbers for the A350-900. These are impressive, and the 787-10 is only 13% lower but is a less capable aircraft. An HGW version of the 787-10 is likely to see that advantage shrink. The A350-900, and the A330-900, are very impressive performers. If replacing the 767-300ER is a challenge, United may tradeoff between the A330-900 and 787-8. The former is proving to be an exceptionally efficient aircraft. Probably more efficient than Airbus expected. If Boeing wins this one, it is likely because of commonality with the current fleet. The 45 A350-900s would handily replace the 777-200ERs but be a sub-fleet and therefore be less attractive. Essentially the twin-aisle deal is likely not going to be split and we think the deal favors Boeing. Then United has to figure out what to do with that hanging A350-900 order.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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