737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 likely to be further delayed

The latest setback to the Boeing 737 MAX program is a load reduction device on the CFM LEAP engine that engages after engine damage from a bird strike. In the event of a broken fan blade, a system engages to reduce the load on the engine by disconnecting the fan to reduce vibrations that could further damage the engine. The system works well, and bird strikes with larger birds that the certification requirements have still resulted in the engines working as planned. While all of that is well and good, the system also, unfortunately, impacts the bleed air system feeding the cockpit and cabin air systems, and could result in noxious fumes being fed into the cabin through bleed air contamination. The cockpit and cabin are fed from different engines, so this depends on which engine may have a bird strike. In two recent Southwest Airlines incidents, cockpit air has been impacted from the impacted engines. As this is a safety of flight issue, the FAA has convened a safety review board to assess the impact of the system, which will likely need to be redesigned prior to the certification of the MAX 7 and MAX 10. In non-beltway speak, that means the problem is serious enough for the agency to take action to fix the system, and have pilots utilize alternative procedures as necessary during climb to avoid problems. This problem will be in addition to the engine anti-ice system issues that have delayed the certification of the two newest MAX variants, and we expect the FAA to take a similar position with this problem. Much like the MCAS system, pilots were unaware of and not trained in the system that is in use on the MAX to reduce engine loads, but also likely results in oil being inserted into the bleed air system, contaminating air sent to the cockpit or cabin. That is not an acceptable result, and the system and operational procedures need to be changed. It is possible to run the cabin air system from the auxiliary power unit, that could remain on during climb and in situations in which larger birds might strike an aircraft. Bird strikes do present serious problems, as the Miracle on the Hudson reminds us, and complicating pilot workload with potential noxious fumes in the cockpit presents an additional safety hazard. Captain "Sully" fortunately didn’t have to worry about breathing contaminated air when he brought the airplane in safely on the river. While progress is being made on the engine anti-ice system, what was thought to be the last hurdle for certification, another has now popped up. Given the history of issues like this, it is unlikely that a waiver would be provided and the new models would need to address the issue in the certification process. That could delay certification another six months to a year, depending on the difficulty to find a solution, resulting in 2026-2027 certification for the new models. Another blow to Boeing's certification time line is not what the company needs at the present time. Certification efforts will likely be a key item on the agenda as the FAA administrator visits Boeing for a meeting with their CEO in the coming weeks. Boeing will likely ask for a temporary waiver, which they are unlikely to receive.

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