2024 Review – Airbus Top Ten Customers

2024 is a year many aviation leaders are pleased to see shrinking in the rearview mirror and another year moving away from the ongoing pandemic crisis and its lingering impacts. Demand for new aircraft remains firm, with backlogs growing. However, the demand for new aircraft and the supply stay out of sync. This post discusses the past year from Airbus's perspective. Airbus has comfortably become the industry's leading OEM. This heft comes with benefits (the supply chain wants to be a part of Airbus's success) and downsides (you can only go down from the top). As we do, let's start with charts. It's already day three of 2025, and Bloomberg cites "people familiar with the numbers." Our tally for the year is 755. In about a week, Airbus should have published its numbers. The chart starts in 2010, which was the start of switching from CEO to NEO. [caption id="attachment_89117" align="aligncenter" width="925"] AirInsight[/caption] The chart displays deliveries using the blue columns. The pink line shows the days between the first flight and the delivery date. Ideally, the columns rise, and the line declines, as we see here. A declining line means the OEM successfully executes its work and grows efficiently. Even as we cheer Airbus improving efficiency, the following chart deserves attention. [caption id="attachment_89118" align="aligncenter" width="914"] AirInsight[/caption] This is data for 2024, and it shows a consistent pattern until December. August is the traditional "downtime" for Europe's summer holidays, and December is traditionally when Airbus boosts deliveries. Whether you accept our estimate of 755 or Bloomerg's 760, Airbus missed its 770 target, which was lowered from its original 800. Top Ten Customers When we examine the data to determine the Top Ten Customers in 2024, we see the following: The two dashed lines are the respective averages. [caption id="attachment_89119" align="aligncenter" width="920"] AirInsight[/caption] Delta and Indigo are off in their world in terms of delivery volume. As such big customers, we also see their deliveries coming quicker than others. Spirit Airlines is a significant customer with quicker-than-average deliveries despite its financial trouble. Among the Top Ten, United Airlines is in the worst quadrant. It waited much longer than average for its deliveries. Even so, United is a crucial win for Airbus as it pivots away from MAX 10 to A321NX. We expect United to be much lower on the Y axis in 2025. Airbus will focus on keeping this customer well because United is Boeing's #1 customer. In the bottom left quadrant, Airbus ensures these crucial customers receive their deliveries quickly. Being a significant customer pays off. Quicker deliveries mean deploying lower fuel burn aircraft, driving down the most critical cost input. It also means being able to retire older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. Ergo, on-time deliveries are significant market-impacting events—United's pivot to the A321NX evidences this. For perspective, we offer two charts, one for single-aisle and the other for twin-aisle. Single-Aisle [caption id="attachment_89123" align="aligncenter" width="921"] AirInsight[/caption] It is now clear how crucial Indigo is for Airbus. The Indian market is fast becoming one of the most important. Boeing is finding this market the #1 outlet for MAXs initially destined for China. Note that Pegasus is listed, underscoring the impact of the loss of this customer moving to MAX 10. Note Delta's role in the chart, highlighting its value to Airbus. Twin-Aisle [caption id="attachment_89122" align="aligncenter" width="922"] AirInsight[/caption] Here, we note Delta's crucial role. This airline has become Airbus's largest customer for the A330neo, a critical model to replace its A330ceo. Delta's role in influencing the A330 replacement market is key. Note that delivery volume is substantially lower than that of single-aisles. Conclusion Airbus depends on a handful of large customers, so its backlog is fragile. This factor is easily overlooked. The Pegasus defection is an example. If, for example, Indigo decides to switch to Boeing because it can get irresistible deals on MAX 8s, all bets are off. This scenario isn't unrealistic—Indigo pivoted away from Pratt & Whitney to CFM. Therefore, watching delivery days becomes an important metric. Any hint of an industrial fumble could mean big news.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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