Embraer E190F – capacity crunch requires patience

In 2022, Embraer and NAC announced their intent to develop a cargo conversion program based on the E1 airframe. The announcement came with an order for 10 E190Fs. The announcement was followed by news from NAC that it had a deal with Kenya-based Astral Aviation for two freighters. Regional One was another potential customer that drew attention. The conversion program was driven by two key concepts: a potential supply base of over 1,500 aircraft and the need for a smaller freighter optimized for e-commerce. The idea had merit then and still does. However, the first converted aircraft is now in Brazil after being showcased at the Farnborough show. Thus, the e-commerce freighter program appears to have lost momentum. What might be going on? First, NAC had changed ownership. Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) now owns it. This changes any strategic plans, as these are reviewed and reconsidered. Second, the decision to announce the Astral launch customer was made so hastily that we believe Embraer read about it in the news when everyone else did. NAC was in trouble for some time before the sale to DAE. It could be that NAC needed the Astral announcement to help its image. In January 2025, Stat Trade Times reported that Astral Aviation had “postponed” its deal with NAC. [caption id="attachment_66420" align="aligncenter" width="640"] E190F Astral Aviation[/caption] Astral Aviation is a small airline, so announcing it as a launch customer for a program like this is risky. It does not have the heft of a more prominent operator. A visit to the company’s website shows aircraft images that don’t match the types. Astral is a niche operator, and announcing it as a launch customer reflects rather poorly on NAC. Going forward Embraer’s concept of the E1 as the basis of a smaller freighter has merit. Air freight that offers this volumetric capacity is needed, as most air freight is restricted by volume rather than mass. This means a freighter focused on e-commerce may be a good solution. Indeed, Embraer is actively seeking partner airlines that operate E190s and have MRO capabilities, i.e., targets with the feedstock and the ability to convert. Given the current capacity crunch, securing feedstock has been difficult. Using the US as an example, note that most air freight is carried by passenger aircraft. The chart also illustrates the niche played by single-aisle models. [caption id="attachment_89603" align="aligncenter" width="780"] US DoT; AirInsight[/caption] Even so, the US volume proves the size of the opportunity. Embraer makes its case for its concept here. MTU published an article predicting an upswing in smaller jets entering the air freight business. Indeed, the future of the E190F likely lies as a feeder for larger air freight carriers. One of the world’s most influential air freighters is Denmark’s Maersk. Maersk lists e-commerce as one of the typical products in air freight. Summary In conclusion, the NAC/Astral news appears premature and might have reflected issues unrelated to Embraer and its program. The E1 remains the most viable model for the role of a jet-powered light freighter. The market will catch up with the concept. We understand there should be news soon.

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