Airbus, Boeing and the VLA Market Rejoinder

It was only a few short years ago when we would be hearing Airbus talk about the Megacity to Megacity traffic flows and ongoing growth that demanded the VLA (very large aircraft). They were right about that. Even after Covid, this is true, Airlines that still have access to their A380 fleet are bringing them back as quickly as they can. But earlier this week at a preshow briefing in Toulouse Airbus was sanguine about the VLA. Several times there were questions about the possibility of an A380neo. All were met with less than enthusiastic smiles and shrugs. The A380 was an amazing program, and remains an excellent way to travel. But its success for Airbus is something best measured in non-financial terms. Airbus is confident their A350-1000 meets what the market needs. They will, as all OEMs do, continue to tweak and refine it. The search for weight reduction is never ending for any aircraft maker. The VLA was dead Which brings us to Boeing and its forthcoming 777-9. This airplane will seat over 420 and could probably go much higher depending on operator configurations. It is going to the next VLA. The A350-1000, by comparison likely tops out at 410. The VLA is above 400 seats, so the A350-1000 just squeaks in. When Airbus was talking about the VLA market, Boeing pushed their 747-8 but also offered the 777-300ER. The 747-8 was a market dud, but while the A380 outsold it, it too is seen as a market dud. Airbus tried a refresh but got too little market traction. The VLA is back And here we are, about to start the annual air show and this subject will come up again and again. This time though, it is Boeing with a real VLA. We expect to hear from Boeing how the VLA is a needed aircraft. Traffic is booming. Airport slots are constrained, especially for megacities. Sounds familiar? It should, because Airbus used to talk about this, too. The thing is, the data shows all this to be true. It was true when Airbus said so and it is true when Boeing says so also. So the VLA is back. VLA Market has grown Currently Boeing holds approximately 439 firm orders for the 777-9, the larger passenger variant of the 777X family. That compares favorably to the 251 A380s delivered. Does this mean the VLA market has grown? Arguably yes. The biggest customers for the 777-9 include Emirates, the largest A380 operator. Lufthansa, an A380 operator that parked its A380s during the pandemic also has orders. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr clearly stated that the A380 would “obviously not come back” during the pandemic—emphasizing it was economically unviable compared to newer twinjets. Well Lufthansa is flying its A380s again and has more VLAs on order. Given the market reaction to the 777-9 being ahead of the A380, despite the program delays and teething troubles, it is clear that the market has indeed grown. And we can expect to grow more, too. What does the upper limit of this market look like? Providing a number is speculative, but it could be as high as 700. That is based on the current 777-9 orders and replacing the A380s in service, with a small growth factor. How does Airbus react? The nature of this industry is that duopolies duel. One sees it in every presentation of competing families. The perceived gaps are obvious and glaring. It leads to annoying questions from the media. For Airbus this is going to be more annoying than usual because, in a way, they created the VLA story. They can't walk back what they used to say because that message now comes from another source. What are the options for Airbus? They could stretch the A350-1000 but they need to be careful. The lesson of the A340-600 is still fresh. Stretching, in general, is beneficial. But there are limits and going over these creates problems. Airbus has studied potential stretches of the A350-1000, sometimes referred to in speculative discussions as the A350-1100 or A350-2000, which would target the VLA market and compete with the 777-9. However, there are significant considerations: Structural Limits: The A350-1000 is already a stretched version of the A350-900, and further stretching requires reassessment of the landing gear, wing loading, and thrust requirements. Engine Power: A stretch would likely need a higher-thrust version of the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB or potentially a new engine variant. This therefore is a primary hurdle because Airbus has to justify the investment. Unless Airbus is able to deploy the GE9x. And you can imagine how that idea is going to go over in some circles. Market Demand: Airbus paused serious work on stretching the A350 because of market size uncertainty. As noted above, expensive lessons are brutal teachers. The market size is an ongoing debate but it is clear that there may not be enough space for two models. Recall, the original VLA idea was a joint effort between Airbus and Boeing. Even back then the market size was a debate. It remains a debate, but we know its bigger than back then, but we don't know how big. But can be reasonably sure there isn't room for two. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury has acknowledged that they continue to study potential A350 evolutions, but there’s no formal program underway. OEMs study the market incessantly. So there will be "paper planes" at both firms. Looking ahead This is where it gets interesting. Airbus is going to suffer some discomfort as Boeing goes on about the VLA market. That's part of the game. But what really starts to get uncomfortable is when customers start pressurizing Airbus to react to the 777-9. Boeing's 777X program has been a disappointment. It was meant to enter service in 2020 and now we hear 2026 is the expected date. On top this, Boeing's other troubles help to make customers want to hedge their bets. Had the 777X program gone smoothly most of the questions brought up would be answered. But Boeing has stumbled badly whereas Airbus has not. While the management decision process at Airbus is seen as ponderous, in this scenario that actually is good. Because a hasty decision on a new VLA is a very big bet. Boeing's stumble doesn't necessarily create a lower risk. Remember the chaos with the first few A380s with mis-sized harnesses? There's always risk and a good amount may be invisible at this stage. Better to let this VLA thing play out some more. Happily for us observers, we don't have skin in the game.

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