COMAC is an enigma. It's the OEM people speak about as the great promise to break into the duopoly. The data don't support this happening anytime soon. Skepticism seems appropriate. COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd.) was established on May 11, 2008. That’s when it formally began developing commercial airliners. Key milestones: 2008: Company founded; launch of the C919 narrowbody program announced the same year. 2009–2010: ARJ21 regional jet (a legacy AVIC program) transitioned under COMAC for certification and production. 2015: ARJ21 receives type certificate from CAAC. 2017: C919 first flight. 2016: ARJ21 enters commercial service (Chengdu Airlines). 2022–2023: C919 certified (CAAC) and enters commercial service (China Eastern, May 2023). In October 2024, images of an ARJ21 in C909 livery emerged. COMAC officially announced the rebranding at the Zhuhai Air Show in November 2024. Production and Deliveries This table says it all. The company has been in the commercial aviation industry for 17 years. That's an average of 10.8 deliveries per year. [caption id="attachment_104621" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Starting in 2010, the period to the EIS of NEO and MAX models, and focusing on single-aisles, Airbus delivered 4,514, Boeing delivered 1,963, and Embraer delivered 143. The Embraer number refers to the E195-E2, the only non-regional commercial jet they have produced. By comparison, COMAC delivered 22 single-aisles. This is an anemic performance. Even with state backing and China's big airlines ordering ~400, with another 1,000 MOUs. Assessment COMAC is a credible, state-backed OEM with meaningful domestic traction. However, it is more like an early-stage OEM by global standards. The key gates to broader competitiveness are Western certification, production scale, demonstrable lifecycle economics, and a globally credible support network. For China-based operators, COMAC aircraft are likely to become the default choice, backed by national policy and a maturing capability. But Chinese operators will remain dependent on the duopoly for at least two or more decades at COMAC's current rates. For airlines and lessors outside China, COMAC deals are likely to be considered soft state aid from China. Commercial aerospace is used as a means to extend influence.
