Airbus and Boeing: Looking Ahead 2026-2030 |

What is likely to happen in the commercial aircraft industry in 2026 includes significant increases in production rates at Airbus and Boeing. Here are some of the headlines we are likely to see: Boeing finally certifies 737 MAX 7 with FAA approval of exemptions Certification of 737 MAX 10 follows shortly thereafter, but may slip to Q1 2027 Certification of 777-9 is on target for 1H 2027, but is running 7 years late Closing on the Spirit acquisition by Boeing will help Airbus with this problematic supplier as the spin-offs to Airbus are completed. Boeing will introduce a larger 777 10 variant at the Farnborough or Dubai Air Show, with Airbus also featuring a larger A350-2000, both with additional seating for the Middle East's three carriers. Supply-chain constraints will continue to impact the industry through 2027, as lagging suppliers catch up with increasing production rates, and Airbus has recognized this by lowering its 2026 A220 target from 14 per month to 12 per month – still a significant increase. Airbus may introduce the A220-500 at Farnborough as Air France wants to become the launch customer of the stretched models to replace older A320s. The duopoly will introduce little to no innovative technologies, but JetZero is scheduled to fly a blended-wing prototype in 2027, which could introduce game-changing technology for the industry. SAF will continue to be in short supply, meeting less than 3% of industry needs Europe will drive environmental activism as the current US Administration rolls back environmental standards in multiple industries. Aircraft production will grow significantly in 2026, with substantial increases in rates at both Airbus and Boeing, taxing the beleaguered supply chain with another significant rate increase in 2027 as the industry attempts to catch up to demand. Demand for aircraft is at an all-time high, and the backlog will soon approach 14,000 aircraft, which, at current rates, would be more than a decade wait for some models – clearly, production rates need to rise substantially to meet demand. The average age of aircraft likely peaked in 2025 at 14.8 years, up from 13.2 years pre-pandemic, and should begin to move downward as new deliveries replace older models. Price increases for aftermarket spares will begin to ameliorate as retirements of older models increase, reducing demand for those parts as the supply-demand balance shifts. Our 2026 aircraft projections for Airbus and Boeing are 1,044 and 708 deliveries, respectively, rising to 1,188 and 870 in 2027. That is about 50% more than 2025, so suppliers need to be ready to change their delivery priorities The Recovery in Traffic Looking at industry traffic, we’ve already seen a recovery to nearly the pre-pandemic trend line for passengers flown. The following chart shows both the trend line and the pandemic's impact. [caption id="attachment_154916" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: IATA[/caption] By 2030, airline traffic should return to a very close approximation of the pre-pandemic trend line, indicating a full recovery after a decade of results below expectations. When compared with 9-11, SARS, the Great Recession, and other events, the combination of Boeing safety issues with the 737 and 787, followed closely by the global pandemic, set the industry back on its trend line for the most prolonged downturn since World War II. But it takes aircraft to deliver all of those passengers, and the industry will need to produce more airplanes. The following graph shows new commercial jet aircraft deliveries by year for Airbus and Boeing over the same period. While the shape of the downturn is quite similar, the recovery has seen hiccups and lags behind the traffic recovery. Aircraft Deliveries The following chart shows historic aircraft deliveries and our projections of what the industry needs to produce from 2026 to 2030. The gap between the two lines shows how large the gap in “missing airplanes” would have been if the Boeing quality issues and the global pandemic had not occurred. The impact of these two events turned out to be greater than the impact on traffic, as the second round of Boeing quality issues in 2024 set the industry recovery on the wrong track until they were resolved in 2025. [caption id="attachment_154917" align="aligncenter" width="640"] source: AirInsight analysis[/caption] The downturn from 2023 to 2024 reflected additional Boeing quality issues with both the 737 and 787, as well as FAA restrictions on 737 production that kept deliveries low. With the new CEO and improvements in 2024, Boeing is on an uptick, a trend it needs to continue if the industry is to avoid another aircraft shortage. Our projections for what the industry needs to deliver is shown on the following chart, which has the duopoly delivering more than 2,000 aircraft annually from 2027-2030. [caption id="attachment_154918" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight analysis[/caption] The ramp-up will require Airbus and Boeing to deliver at accelerated levels over the next half-decade to catch up with demand. Airbus will need to expand production to the rates it projected for 2024 and 2025 shortly after the pandemic, but did not achieve them, in 2026 and 2027 if the industry is to catch up with pent-up demand. The outlook for Airbus is quite positive, but it requires a substantial ramp-up in production. Fortunately, the new assembly lines in Tianjin and Mobile will enable production to grow by nearly 200 aircraft per year once operating at full capacity. The question is whether Airbus's supply chain can meet those increased requirements on a timely and consistent basis. Boeing needs to continue to prove itself and break out of the FAA-imposed production limits on the 737 MAX. Nonetheless, we have projected Boeing to increase its MAX production rates by five aircraft per month every six months, assuming positive results on the key performance indicators required by the FAA, and to reach 72 MAX per month by 2030. Boeing is adding a fourth 737 MAX production line in Everett for the MAX 10, as well as expanding its South Carolina facilities to enable an increase in 787 Dreamliner production at Charleston. With the pending certification of the 777-9, Boeing will begin ramping up production of the new aircraft in 2026, in anticipation of early 2027 certification and entry into service. Most of the pieces of the puzzle are now in place, and the industry is poised to increase production rates significantly with new facilities. The focus now needs to turn to execution and the supply chain to maintain the momentum from the fourth quarter of 2025. Our production projections for Airbus and Boeing are shown in the following table: [caption id="attachment_154915" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Source: AirInsight analysis[/caption] It has taken quite a while for the supply-chain disruption in the wake of the global pandemic to ameliorate and return to a “new normal” level. The OEMs have set aggressive goals for the next half-decade to avoid having backlogs with unsustainable wait times. Demand has recovered, and the next few years will determine if supply can catch up. The individual goals, program by program, have been stated before and met during the year's “crunch time” period with strong delivery. Those periods now need to be extended with strong performance throughout the year. We expect Airbus and Boeing to continue improving supplier performance and meeting their more aggressive production goals over the next half-decade. The near-term future, from a technology perspective, is more of the same, as concepts such as hydrogen propulsion have been pushed back into the 2040s due to technology maturity, and SAF developments have been slower than anticipated to meet industry needs. Without significant changes, a focus on manufacturing rates and quality should enable the industry to recover to pre-pandemic traffic and aircraft production levels, finally. Stay tuned as we follow how the big two OEMs are faring with their production ramp-ups throughout the year in our Production and Deliveries model, available to subscribers in the analytics library under subscriber data models.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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