Airbus guides demand for 42.060 pax aircraft

42.060 new aircraft deliveries: that’s the number Airbus is guiding in its latest Global Market Forecast for the next 20 years through 2045. The forecast is down by 390 compared to last year’s GMF, or by 370 compared to the 2024 version. Airbus released the GMF today, one and a half weeks ahead of the Farnborough Airshow. First, let’s look at the numbers and then dig a bit deeper into the reasoning behind it, as explained during an online briefing on Tuesday. The 42.060 new deliveries are only passenger aircraft compared to 43.420 passenger and freighter aircraft in last year’s GMF. Like last year, Airbus will release a freighter outlook again in October. Of the 42.060 deliveries, 22.240 will be for growth and 19.820 for replacement. 53 per cent of the world’s fleet is up to 10 years old, down 10 percentage points from 2015. But 35 percent are now between 11 and 20 years old, up from 29 percent in 2015. [caption id="attachment_195313" align="aligncenter" width="702"] Airbus GMF 2026-2045 single aisle[/caption] Single aisle Looking at aircraft segments makes a better comparison. Airbus guides 33.920 single-aisle deliveries compared to 34.250 in last year’s GMF. 18.340 are for growth versus 19.290 last year, and 15.580 for replacement compared to 14.960 last year. There are 3.160 young aircraft that are in service now and will be in 20 years, compared to 3.010 in the 2025 forecast. This results in a worldwide fleet of 37.080 single aisles versus 18.740 last year. 41 percent of the next 20 years demand is already in the backlog of Airbus and Boeing. Single-aisle capacity will double by 2045 at 4 percent per year. [caption id="attachment_195312" align="aligncenter" width="711"] Airbus GMF 2026-2045 widebodies[/caption] Widebodies Widebody deliveries will also be slightly down compared to last year’s forecast: 8.140 versus 8.200. Of these, 3.900 are for growth compared to 4.120 last year, while 4.240 will be for replacement (4.070). 330 young widebodies will stay, down from 340. This grows the fleet to 8.470 widebodies versus 8.530 last year. Airbus and Boeing have 32 percent of the new deliveries in their order books. Airbus didn’t mention freighters in the latest GMF, but just for the record, guided 935 factory-built full freighters and 1.670 conversions for the next 20 years last October 2025. That made 2.605 additional freighters. Regions Most new deliveries will go to airlines in Asia. China has a demand for 8.830 aircraft, of which 85 percent single aisles, while Asia-Pacific will take 6.880 aircraft. That’s just ahead of the 6.850 for North America, which is also seen as 85/15 split between narrowbodies and widebodies. Europe and former CIS states will likely take 8.190 aircraft in an 82/19 percent split. The Middle East needs 3.490 aircraft, but has the largest share of widebodies at 47 percent. Compare this to just 9 percent for India, which needs 3.480 aircraft. Latin America has a need for 2.120 aircraft, with just 7 percent widebodies. Africa stands at 1.640 aircraft with an 80/20 split. [caption id="attachment_195326" align="aligncenter" width="725"] Airbus GMF 2026-2045 demand per region[/caption] Passenger traffic With passenger traffic predicted to grow by 3.9 percent a year, up from 3.6 percent last year, and set to double by 2045, why is the number of new passenger aircraft deliveries down on last year’s GMF? “There is a small decrease in the number of passenger aircraft, and that is due to the lower growth that we are currently experiencing”, says Antonia da Costa, Vice President of Market Analysis and Forecast. He has been referring to the Middle East crisis since February. Although airlines in the region have recovered capacity to 80 to 90 percent of pre-crisis levels, Airbus follows IATA’s prediction that air traffic will grow by just 2.1 percent this year. This equals out the recovery from the last phase of the pandemic, hence explaining why the GMF forecast is 390 aircraft down on 2025. Longer term, Airbus sees various factors that will boost air travel, like a significant growth of the world’s population in the central, middle and upper middle classes that can afford to fly. Migrations and diasporas of international migrants are stimulating visiting friends and relatives travel, notably to and from Europe. Trips per capita will grow sixfold in India, double in Brazil, more than double in China, and see significant growth in Europe and the US. Passenger traffic in RPKs will grow from 9.9 trillion kilometres to 21.3 trillion in 2045. Growth is the strongest in what already are the biggest markets: domestic China (+4.7 percent), domestic US (+1.8), and domestic India (+9.3). Smaller cities Airbus sees a few more trends. One is urbanisation shifting from megacities to large, medium and small cities. Consequently, of the 28.000 city pairs served last year, 78 percent were smaller cities. 55 percent of city routes didn’t exist in 2005. Boeing will say this is exactly what it predicted when it launched the 787: more point-to-point to smaller cities compared to Airbus, claiming that airlines needed the A380 to serve overcrowded mega hubs. Yet, air travel will double. Does Airbus see a need for a bigger aircraft than its A350-1000, maybe even a successor to the A380? “The GMF is aircraft agnostic; it is a demand forecast. In terms of a larger A350: we are always looking at aircraft studies and product developments. There is no decision whatsoever. The A350-900 and -1000 are really well-positioned, and the -1000 has accelerated sales over the past few years, driven by the 777-300ER replacement wave and the longer range capability”, said Joost van der Heijden, SVP of Marketing. [caption id="attachment_195328" align="aligncenter" width="672"] Airbus A321XLR Farnborough Airshow 2024[/caption] Product portfolio While agnostic of aircraft types, Van der Heijden and Da Costa highlighted some key benefits from the current product portfolio. For instance, the A220 created more than 400 new routes in North America, Africa and Europe. Asia-Pacific will follow soon, thanks to Air Asia X’s mega-order for 150 aircraft. The region could see 800+ new routes becoming within reach because of the range of the A220, or 600+ in Europe and 800+ in North America. It’s the same for the A321XLR, which has delivered just over 40 aircraft. Operators use them for 49 percent on new long-range routes and 44 percent to complement widebodies. Airbus sees over 2.000 potential new routes for the XLR. The standard A321neo has developed into a versatile aircraft that suits (ultra)low-cost carriers with single-class cabins to airlines that offer four classes to serve premium customers. The number of flights over five hours for single-aisle aircraft has grown 3.2 times since 2005. For widebodies, flights of over 13 hours have quadrupled since 2005. Capacity in Economy Class on widebodies has grown by 1.4 percent, but Premium grew even faster at 2.9 percent. With some airlines, almost half of the cabin space is taken by Premium seats. Continued strong demand and the wish for product segmentation will require more widebody aircraft, Airbus thinks. Widebody capacity will grow by, on average, 3.4 percent a year through 2045. Boeing will present its Commercial Market Outlook next week, but it is embargoed until July 19.

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