Boeing April 2025 Orders and Deliveries – an analysis

Here is the April update. Notes: Boeing continues to claw its way out of delays and inventory buildup Customers keep ordering, so that is a source of relief, although eight for the month is soft Focus on MAX Looking at our production and delivery tracker, we see Boeing is progressing. The key model is the MAX. [caption id="attachment_91204" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Because the MAX inventory is being delivered slowly, the average days curve remains high. The following chart illustrates this well. The arrow points to the problem and the solution. [caption id="attachment_91205" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] The Air India Express aircraft were typically ordered by another airline and went into inventory. Another vital problem solver has been Akasa. Today's news about China being open to deliveries again is great news for Boeing. It means India can't get the deals they have been getting to date; prices will go up. Chinese airlines can get any NTUs left in inventory. Crucially, as inventory drops, new production can become the focus. The focus has to be on getting to 38/month. Having met the FAA-approved KPIs, Boeing can grow that number. Here's how we can demonstrate Boeing's progress. The chart shows MAX program data. [caption id="attachment_91207" align="aligncenter" width="640"] AirInsight[/caption] Notice how the average age of a delivery has improved. The curve declines as inventory is delivered, and current production impacts more of it. That curve won't come down unless there's progress moving inventory. At the same time, look further back in time and see how far Boeing has to go to return to the "good old days." It is an agonizing journey, and there are no shortcuts. However, with China open again, we could see a significant acceleration in deliveries, and inventory is where that will start. Just as the China grounding and closure created a vicious cycle, reopening and taking deliveries creates a virtuous cycle. Why focus on MAX? Boeing has paused the X-66A and moved skills to the MAX program, which is its bread and butter. The delays in the market-desired MAX 10 depend on the MAX 7 being certified. Solve the MAX inventory and production rate problems; magically, Boeing is in a vastly different place. The 777X and KC-46 are also suffering. Boeing's management has to prioritize and use its skills to solve problems. MAX is #1. Solve the MAX issues, and Renton will go full steam again, potentially back to a rate of 60. Then add the new Everett FAL for the MAX 10, and the company will hum. There will always be challenges, like 787 cabins. But MAX is job 1 to fix.

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