Boeing’s Cautious 2026 Plans

If 2025 was the turning point for Boeing, then 2026 will be a year of acceleration. Let's go over the available information to get an idea of what might be coming. The Production Roadmap The focus remains on MAX for now. This is the bedrock for Boeing, and the chart shows why. The chart lists single aisles through 2024. You can see how disruptive the MAX grounding was - Boeing kept production going to save its supply chain as long as it could. Then deliveries started again, bringing down the backlog. Note the rise in the MAX backlog late in 2024 and 2025 was a year for big orders. [caption id="attachment_180555" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] For a more current view of the Boeing single-aisle situation, take a look at this chart. Even with all the MAX challenges, Boeing's customers largely remained loyal. Orders keep coming, and working off that backlog is job #1. At current rates, the MAX backlog is now 16.6 years. So the production matter is urgent. [caption id="attachment_180749" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Current State (January 2026): Current MAX production is 42 aircraft per month in Renton FAL This rate was increased from 38 per month after FAA approval in October 2025 The FAA imposed the 38-aircraft cap in early 2024 following the Alaska Airlines door plug blowout incident Near-Term Target: 47 MAX production per month by late spring or early summer 2026 Planned increases to 52 and 57 per month in subsequent years Long-Term Capacity: Renton can theoretically produce up to 63 MAXs per month However, Boeing is being realistic (cautious may be a better term) about sustainable production levels Why the Caution? Katie Ringgold, VP and General Manager of the 737 Program, explained: "We have no plans to run it perfectly where every line moves every night. Our supply chain is rebuilding, and our workforce is rebuilding." Boeing designated 2025 as a year of stability and 2026 as a year of growth, indicating a deliberate, measured approach rather than rushing to maximum output. Key Constraints and Challenges FAA Oversight: The FAA continues to be strict on-site, with inspectors scrutinizing the assembly line and inspecting every aircraft before it's certified for delivery. Boeing tracks six FAA-agreed KPIs covering escapes, shortages, rework, traveled work, and ticketing performance. Supply Chain Recovery: Boeing has been rebuilding its supply chain following its acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, which fabricates roughly 70% of the 737 parts. The integration is still ongoing. Workforce Rebuilding: Boeing resumed 737 production in December 2024 after a nearly two-month machinists' strike that ended with a new contract including a 38% wage increase over four years. Quality Metrics: CEO Kelly Ortberg reported a 30% reduction in production defects, which has improved customer satisfaction with delivery. Even Michael O'Leary was complimentary. Significant Milestone - The Moses Lake Closure In August 2025, Boeing flew the last of 250 previously stored 737 MAX 8s out of Moses Lake, concluding a six-year effort to maintain and rework approximately 450 aircraft that were grounded globally in 2019. The shadow factory at Moses Lake employed nearly 1,000 people at its peak just for storage and rework operations. The closure allows Boeing to reallocate experienced mechanics back to the main production lines in Renton to support the planned 2026 production ramp-up. The site now serves as a primary location for flight tests and preparations for the MAX 7, MAX 10, and 777X. The Order Backlog Boeing currently has a backlog of approximately 4,774 (some say over 6,000) with slots sold out through the 2030s. Our tracking shows 4,320. This massive backlog provides the business case for increased production and creates urgency to deliver. Competitive Pressure: While Boeing aims for 47 per month by mid-2026, Airbus plans to deliver 75 A320-family aircraft per month by 2026 — ~60% more than Boeing's target. The A320neo has gained ground during Boeing's grounding and remains ahead in market share. This popularity also moved from the A320 to the A321, hurting Boeing even more, as the MAX 10 remains uncertified. In October 2024, the Airbus A320 family surpassed the Boeing 737 in total deliveries, becoming the most-delivered commercial jet series in history with over 12,260 units. This was a big deal. Another item often overlooked is that the A321 has now been delivered three times as many as the 757. Ouch. Don't forget the 787 Boeing is also ramping up the 787 program, which has reached seven aircraft per month and plans to increase to 10 per month in 2026. It is incredible to think that Boeing has only two models it can deliver to the commercial market. Three is you add the freighters. Certification Watch Critical to Boeing's 2026 success are three pending certifications: 737 MAX 7: Expected mid-2026, with Southwest as launch customer in 2027. But as we noted earlier, there are strong rumors that Southwest no longer wants the 25 already produced. Boeing has 332 orders for the MAX 7. 737 MAX 10: Expected later in 2026, enabling deliveries to United, WestJet, and Ryanair in late 2026 or 2027. This is the second-best seller in the MAX family and crucial for Boeing to get delivered. The market has upsized and wants the MAX 10. Boeing has 1,200 MAX 10 orders. 777-9: Continued flight testing through 2026, with service entry targeted for 2027. Another program that is way behind schedule, much to the annoyance of key customer, Emirates. Financial Implications If Boeing successfully reaches 47 MAX per month by mid-2026 and maintains quality standards, it will mark a significant turning point for cash flow and financial recovery. The company's ability to deliver at this rate determines whether 2026 becomes the pivot year Boeing desperately needs. Boeing must make 2026 work because Airbus is already working towards its A320 family replacement. New program cycles are time-consuming. However, there are many rumors that Boeing is up to the task with new ideas. The cancellation of their X-66 wasn't expected. So the jury remains out.

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