C919 Operational numbers revealed

Thanks to excellent work at Skailark, we have the first clues as to how well the C919 performs compared to its peers. Spoiler alert: The C919 is competitive We have been dismissive of COMAC's ability to compete with the duopoly several times. These statements have focused on COMAC's ability to deliver at rates even close to the duopoly. However, we now have data from a consistent source that speaks to the economic performance of the C919 compared to its peers. The C919 is primarily flown on Cina domestic service, though it seems to be growing beyond China. We see on the left chart that the C919 is being flown on similar stages to its peers. On the right chart, its fuel burn is slightly above that of the Airbus and Boeing previous generation models. While a first reaction might be to dismiss this performance, we think a pause is more appropriate. The C919 just entered service and is essentially being shaken down in airline service. The fuel burn will almost certainly improve. The key question is how much? If you want to challenge that view, look at the sparklines for the Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Fuel burn improves over time. If the C919's performance follows that of its peers, and we expect it to, we might see a fuel burn at or below 1.0. We would be highly surprised if the C919 didn't match or beat the A320ceo and 737-800NG. China's CAAC is very conservative and does not move quickly—it was the first agency to ground the MAX and the last to remove that restriction. As confidence builds, the C919 can be expected to be pushed harder by its single operator. As other operators add the aircraft, our data will grow richer enabling deeper analysis. We assess that the C919 is at least competitive at this early stage.

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