The rising turn-time impact at Southwest Airlines

Southwest has upgauged from ~65% 737-700 to ~65% 737-800/MAX 8. This change has significant implications. Whereas the airline typically used to carry 143 passengers (assuming a full flight) on the -700s, it carries 175 on the larger airplanes (assuming a full flight). Southwest has to process 22.4% more people per flight on the larger airplanes. Herb Kelleher, co-founder of Southwest, frequently cited the 10-minute turnaround as a competitive advantage. Southwest Airlines famously claimed it could turn an aircraft (deplaning, cleaning, boarding, and pushback) in as little as 10 minutes in its early years. This was a cornerstone of its high-utilization, low-cost model. More recently, especially after upgauging to the 737-800 and MAX 8, Southwest's target turn time increased to ~25 minutes. This is still faster than most competitors. A quick turn is central to its efficiency and scheduling model, but operational realities (TSA, boarding groups, overhead bags, etc.) make sub-15-minute turns rare today. Here's how rare those quick turns are. Using data from Skailark from 3Q24 through 1Q25, we observe the following. The Skailark turn times come from ADSB tracking. Average turn times are significantly longer than 25 minutes. The larger aircraft are taking much longer: the -800 takes 17.7% more time and the MAX 8 takes 21.7% more time. Southwest has 22.4% more capacity on the larger models, and that costs about the same amount of turn time. What does the time cost? Based on US DOT data from Form 41, we estimate Southwest's 2024 operational costs to be $96 per minute. The following table provides context regarding flights and times. [caption id="attachment_91947" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Skailark; AirInsight[/caption] Here is our estimate of operational cost per seat based on the US DOT Form 41 data. [caption id="attachment_91948" align="aligncenter" width="640"] US DOT; AirInsight[/caption] Notice how much lower the costs are for the MAX 8. This is primarily because it is so much more fuel-efficient than the other models. The MAX 8 is at $29 compared to $39 for the -700 and $44 for the -800. Using the 737-700 as the benchmark, here is our estimate. The MAX 8 costs $1,052 per flight more than the -700 per turnaround, or $84.58 per seat. The -800 costs $1,152 per flight more than the -700 per turnaround or $113.75 per seat. These costs are driven by the additional time it takes to turn the flight. Even the MAX, with its excellent lower costs, is hampered by the longer turnaround time. Sometimes, bigger isn't better.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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